By Declan Kearney
Three significant outcomes have begun to crystallise in the aftermath of the most recent Irish general election.
First, Sinn Féin has been consolidated as the third major political force in the southern Irish state.
Second, for the first time since partition, politics in the 26 counties has potentially shifted from the binary dominance of the two conservative parties, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, towards a political cleavage between progressive, and conservative, clientelist blocs.
Third, the realignment raises the need for consideration about how left, Republican parties and progressive representatives cooperate in the time ahead.
The need for, and resistance to, change resonated throughout the election campaign.
Notwithstanding the urgency of the housing and homelessness, cost of living, and health crises, it looks probable that a Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael government coalition will reform once a junior partner has been secured.
After the last coalition arrangement, and preceding confidence and supply deal between these two parties, there is no prospect that they will seriously address or tackle these issues.
But these priorities will continue to dominate the political agenda because they are directly relevant to the quality of people’s lives; they will quickly become the yardstick by which the next coalition will be measured in the new Dáil.
The composition of the next Dáil has been dramatically realigned.
The election result confirms that the century and more long monopoly of power between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael has been permanently ended. Both are shadows of their previous strength.
In November, Fine Gael received its second lowest share of the vote in 75 years. Back in 2011, Fianna Fáil recorded its historically lowest vote at 17%; 13 years later its share of the vote has only increased to 21.9%.
Whilst Sinn Féin’s popular vote share reduced from 2020, to 19% in 2024, that result demonstrates that the surge in support for the party is not an aberration. Sinn Féin has consolidated its electoral position and is now the second largest party in Dáil Éireann.
Our trajectory in the 26 counties has been remarkable. In 2011, the party polled 9.9%.
The path to political power is a marathon, not a sprint.
That is the political lesson of the party’s systematic growth in the north of Ireland to become the largest party in the 6 counties state, and in 2024 to lead the power sharing coalition.
A similar approach needs to be navigated in the south. There is no alternative to the steady work of party building, campaigning upon and representing the key issues which matter in people’s lives, and setting out a vision of positive hope and change.
Our general election result establishes a solid base for that to be done.
Everything is to play for.
The last election campaign gave expression to a palpable desire for change, because the greater number of workers and families, particularly under the age of 45 years old, have been left behind by successive governments in Dublin. They cannot buy homes or afford rental accommodation, and their incomes are not keeping pace with the spiralling costs of living.
Those who have been left behind want solutions, and Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have failed to deliver on their behalf.
The likely return to power of these parties must not be allowed to dash the popular expectation and desire of so many to have a real stake in society – an affordable home, a decent job, a fair wage and access to good quality public services.
They want a better future for their children and our young people.
Emigration has become the effective default policy response to this perfect storm of challenges.
Keeping hope alive and proving that real solutions can be delivered must be the focus of all those who will form the parliamentary opposition to the incoming government.
There are three parties comprising up to 60 Teachtaí Dála with a sizable group of other progressive representatives.
This will be arguably the largest cohort from the broad left ever to be elected to the Oireachtas and constituting a parliamentary opposition.
The challenge will be to translate that political strength into a cohesive opposition which stands up for the interests of workers and families: a political axis representing the many, not the few.
A conversation is now needed across the Irish political left which includes the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, campaigning NGOs and other progressive sections of Irish civic society.
Important public interventions have already been made in recent days by senior trade union leaders.
There is a need to rethink the politics of opposition.
In the absence of being in government, a manifesto for opposition should be devised and implemented in the next Dáil. Much better that is done with maximum cooperation among those who share broad progressive values and principles, than not.
That would require a willingness to engage with fresh thinking, fraternity, and an openness to explore areas of agreement.
A real opportunity has emerged from this election to consider the development of a progressive left republican bloc which respects the independence and autonomy of cooperating political parties, and other TDs.
The issues which dominated in the general election are the basis for future cooperation by those on the left.
We owe it to the hundreds of thousands who gave us the mandate to bring about the change which they deserve.
The priorities which have to be progressed are clear:
• Housing and homeless
• Hospital waiting lists
• The EU Minimum Wage Directive and its incorporation into Irish law, alongside other workers’ rights
• The waste of public expenditure
• Cost of living pressures on working families
• Gaza and Palestine
• Maintaining Irish neutrality
At the same time, the next government must implement the existing political consensus to plan and prepare for Irish unity.
All parties in the last Dáil endorsed that policy position. It now should be reflected in the next Programme for Government as a stipulated political objective.
Left republican cooperation will be an important parliamentary dynamic to ensure that the necessary decisions are made during the term of the next Dáil to secure a unity referendum.
Another five years of more of the same from a coalition wedded to the status quo must not be tolerated.
Those in opposition must maximise their collective political strength to pressure the government into adopting and implementing positions which serve the national democratic, economic and social interest.
The political foundations for a future government of change for the many need to be built now.
Left republican political cooperation is the way forward.
Declan Kearney MLA is Sinn Féin’s National Chairperson.
The above article was originally published here by An Phoblacht.