By Steve Bell
On May 5th, the United States government made an agreement with Ansar Allah (the correct title for “The Houthis”). This is a party which the same U.S. government listed as a “Foreign Terrorist Organisation” just two months earlier. This remarkable agreement represents a reversal of a policy implemented by the US since March 15th. The agreement is that the US will no longer attack Yemen, and Ansar Allah will no longer attack the US navy in the Red Sea. It represents no cost to Ansar Allah, who have merely reaffirmed its position prior to March 15th of continuing to interdict shipping bound for Israel, and continuing its long-range military action against Israel until the genocide in Gaza is stopped.
A rough ride for the US
Of course, Trump had to present the failed policy as a triumph. Serious analysts reject this: “…on May 6th, American president Donald Trump claimed the group had “capitulated”. In reality, however, the US pullback is likely as much a result of the mission’s failure as US reluctance to get drawn into a deeper conflict.” (1)
Certainly, Trump’s statement, at the outset of the US campaign, that Ansar Allah would be “completely annihilated” has not happened. Titled ‘Operation Rough Rider’, the campaign involved over 1100 strikes over seven and a half weeks, with an approximate cost of $2 billion. The strike total was more than double the total of Biden’s ‘Operation Poseidon Archer’ against Yemen, which lasted a year.
A great deal of advanced weaponry was deployed. This included two aircraft carrier strike groups, B2 Stealth bombers, F35 and F18 fighters, MQ-9 Reaper drones, alongside Patriot and THAAD missile systems. Two F18’s were lost at sea due to the impact of enemy fire. Critical concern was expressed in US military circles at the number of near misses endured by the most sophisticated planes from Yemeni Armed Forces missiles. Seven Reaper Drones were destroyed, at a cost of $30 million each, by missiles which cost around $200,000.
Inevitably, such a destructive campaign was felt most heavily by Yemen’s civilian population. The Yemen Data Project states that from 15 to 31 March, 28 civilians were killed including 4 children, with 66 injured. While April was “the worst month for civilian harm in air dropped bombs since 2017.” At least 206 civilians were killed, 17 of them children, and 366 injured. The heaviest single incident appears to have been the bombing of a hostel housing African migrants, when 91 were killed and 236 injured. (2)
One of the most destructive actions was the raid on Ras Isa port on April 17th. This was a raid on a purely civilian infrastructure which “… deliberately and premeditatedly targeted the destruction of a vital facility that represents an important lifeline for millions of civilians in Yemen.” All the 80 dead and 150 wounded were civilians. In the words of one of the survivors: “They burned the employees and drivers and set fire to everything with missiles. They burned the gates so that no-one could escape, whether the truckers, employees or drivers.” (3)
But this expensive, cruel, and lethal campaign missed its targets. On behalf of the White House, Anne Kelly informed the press that military actions were successful in “killing hundreds of Houthi fighters and destroying their weapons.” Even if true, as Ansar Allah have hundreds of thousands under arms, “hundreds” of deaths is of no strategic significance. There is “…little evidence…that members of the group’s top command structure have been eradicated; its inner circle is very much active.” (4)
As for the destruction of armaments, it was a regular claim of the Biden administration, that the arsenal was being degraded, or was significantly degraded. An Israeli analyst throws light on this following the latest Israeli air strikes on Yemen. “The Houthis don’t appear like they will backdown. They have suffered some airstrikes, but they are rebuilding their airports and ports that have been targeted. It doesn’t appear that the missiles themselves, apparently hidden in mountains with launch vehicles that can be easily rolled out or disguised, have been targeted or neutralized. It is hard to find ballistic missiles.” (5)
Continuing offensive of imperialism in West Asia
The question then arises, why did Trump choose to attack Yemen in the first place? The answer is twofold – a broad confidence instilled in US imperialism by recent developments in West Asia; and a less important, but real assumption that Biden’s Yemeni policy was weak or indecisive.
The broad confidence of US imperialism flows from several successes in proxy wars being conducted by Israel. These successes have not ended the popular resistance to imperialism. But they have increased the suffering of the oppressed peoples and limited the immediate ability of the resistance to launch initiatives against imperialism.
For the Palestinians, the unwavering support of US imperialism and its allies extended to Netanyahu’s genocidal war has taken from them a substantial part of their population. Imperialism has reduced society in Gaza to a daily scramble for survival amongst the rubble. The defensive capacity of the armed resistance has been severely curtailed, and its internal leadership sharply reduced.
The Palestinians have refused to be driven out of Gaza as Netanyahu intended. Nor will they accept Trump’s pipedream of a US organised “riviera.” This steadfastness is the guarantor of ultimate victory. But imperialism has succeeded in increasing the oppression of the Palestinians today.
For the Lebanese people, selective assassinations, a brutal war, and the military reoccupation of south Lebanon has dealt a serious blow to the country’s sovereignty. Hezbollah has lost its leader, Sheikh Nasrallah, whose reputation was that of one of the most astute strategists of any party in the region. Such leaders develop over time and can only be replaced over time. This is made more difficult by the loss of experienced cadres in the war. The strengthening of pro-imperialist elements in the Lebanese government is a by-product of military hits on the resistance.
The victory of pro-imperialist forces in Syria potentially has the most long-term impact upon the region. Whatever the shortcomings of the Syrian state under the Baathists, it still retained its independence and remained one of the obstacles to imperialist domination of the region.
An independent, nationalist state has been reduced into a helpless vassal of imperialism and its allies in Türkiye and Israel. Under the HTS government, a large part of the territory has been de-facto conceded to the Israeli state. The new state’s policy is to eradicate any involvement in supporting the Palestinians, or in opposing US imperialism. It is one of the most significant defeats for the Arab people since 1967.
These gains are the main source of Trump’s bravado towards Yemen. With so much going right, how could it go wrong in Yemen? Overlaid on this was the assumption that Biden’s had failed to fully utilize US power in his campaign in the Red Sea. Once it became clear that Ansar Allah was not going to accept Israel’s breach of the Gaza ceasefire Trump decided to do what Biden had not. After sanctioning the first US strikes on March 15th, Trump addressed Ansar Allah in a tweet: “… YOUR TIME IS UP (…) HELL WILL RAIN DOWN UPON YOU LIKE NOTHING YOU HAVE EVER SEEN BEFORE!”
Yet resistance continues
According to a New York Times article of 12 May, the original plan for the campaign drawn up by General Kurilla who had been targeting Ansar Allah since November 2023. His plan was “… an eight-to-ten-month campaign (…) take out Houthi air defence systems (…) targeted assassination modelled on Israel’s recent operation against Hezbollah.” (6) Trump authorised the action with the qualification of seeing visible progress after a month. Despite a fierce campaign, the progress Trump sought was not there. Instead, the US government was faced with a risky, expensive war of uncertain duration or benefit. Mediation was offered by Oman, and both Saudi Arabia and Iran assisted in securing the unlikely agreement between the US government and Ansar Allah.
Although US imperialism has made advances, it still faces resistance across the region. Overturning the resistance offered by Yemen and Iran is still a formidable task. As Trump has found out, Ansar Allah has a substantial social base, and a consolidated position of power. This cannot be changed by an aerial war alone. The attempts of Saudi Arabia to create, hire and organise a ground force in Yemen proved a complete failure, despite US backing. By making an agreement with Ansar Allah, the US government has ended any lingering hopes of the Saudi backed ‘Presidential Leadership Council’ militarily defeating Ansar Allah.
Equally, Trump is attempting to obtain an agreement with Iran, rather than risk a war which would set the entire Persian Gulf and Arabian Peninsula alight. Saying that does not exclude the possibility that the current talks will fail, and that war will follow. But the situation is much more hazardous for a US war than in 2015, when most of the GCC states favoured a war against Iran. Since Trump’s first term the Chinese government mediated renewed diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The other GCC members have resolved their diplomatic issues and are engaged in increasing and diversifying economic links with Iran. A war would disrupt this progress and see their oil wells and gas fields go up in flames.
The US policy of a ceasefire with Ansar Allah is assessed by Dr Hussein Ibish: “I see the ceasefire as primarily occurring in the context of the US-Iranian nuclear negotiations. Without these talks, even if the Houthis decided to pull back from confrontation and stop or greatly reduce their provocations, it’s unlikely that anything as formal as a ceasefire – however tenuous and fragile – would have been agreed with Washington.” (7)
Least there be any doubt about the success of the Yemeni resistance, the pattern of events is clear. Prior to the January 2025 ceasefire in Gaza, Ansar Allah was attacking US/UK naval forces and Israeli bound shipping. This action was justified as an action to prevent the continuation of genocide in Gaza, and in line with the Geneva Convention. With the ceasefire, Ansar Allah stopped its campaign and supported the Palestinian efforts to consolidate the ceasefire into a lasting peace. On March 2nd Israel broke the ceasefire process by ending the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza. The US did not force Israel to adhere to the agreed process. On March 11th, the Yemeni Armed Forces announced they would end their ceasefire if aid continued to be blocked by the Israeli government. On March 15th, Trump authorised attacks on Yemen, before the Yemeni Armed Forces deadline expired, and while the Gaza ceasefire was still formally in place. The US/Ansar Allah agreement only ends the conflict between those parties; Ansar Allah is continuing its military actions against the genocide.
Yemen still under siege
The effectiveness of Ansar Allah’s action can be gauged by the impact on Red Sea traffic to Israel. Firstly, the sole Israeli port on the Red Sea, Eilat, has been bankrupted. Secondly, most of the Red Sea traffic has been directed around the Cape of Good Hope. On Friday October 6th, 2023, the seven-day moving average of traffic through the Suez Canal was 3,495,636 metric tons. On Friday May 23rd, 2025, by the same measure, only 1,105,308 metric tons passed. (8) Less than a third of previous tonnage is now using the Suez Canal. As the costs to shipping companies, and those sending cargos, have increased so this remains an irritant for imperialism.
But imperialism has subjected the Yemeni people to a siege since March 2015, long before the Gaza genocide began. The US, UK and French governments armed and aided the Saudi/UAE coalition’s war on Yemen. Despite there having been a truce since April 2022, the siege and sanctions against Yemen continue today. Under the rhetoric of “freedom of navigation,” the US, UK and EU continue to throttle the Yemeni people, one of the poorest nations in the world.
The results of these actions are the continuing humanitarian crisis inside Yemen. According to UN departments, more than 80% of Yemenis live in “multi-dimensional poverty”. 18.2 million require humanitarian assistance, with 17.6 million suffering from food insecurity. 3.5 million children under the age of five suffer from acute malnutrition. 1.3 million pregnant women and new mothers suffer from malnutrition. 6.8 million remain forcibly displaced inside Yemen.
The economic crisis is as profound as the humanitarian crisis. Based on current prices, the IMF estimates the country’s GDP at $42.4 bn in 2015, at the start of the Saudi led invasion. In 2025, the estimate is for a GDP of $17.4 bn – only 41% of what it was a decade ago. In that decade, the population has grown from thirty-one million to forty-two million today. That means that GDP per capita today is less than a third it was in 2015. The actions of US, UK and EU governments have created nothing but a continuing catastrophe for the Yemeni people since 2015.
Labour government waiting to exhale
Successive British governments have directly participated in the oppression of Yemen. The Conservatives after 2015 armed the Saudi/UAE coalition; provided logistical and intelligence support; deployed special forces inside Yemen; and stationed troops inside Saudi Arabia for its “defence”. In 2024 they used the armed forces in support of Biden’s Operation Poseidon Archer. Since 2024, the Labour government has continued the same policy, doggedly following the path laid out by US imperialism.
When Trump launched Operation Rough Rider, the Labour government immediately supported. For the first month and a half the RAF refuelled the US bombers. However, Starmer is determined to show that anything the Tories can do, Labour can do likewise. On April 29th, British planes participated in a joint operation with US fighters against a supposed Ansar Allah military target.
Now, there has been surprisingly little interest shown by most parliamentarians on British actions in Yemen. The last House of Commons debate on Yemen took place on 20th July 2021, and the last Lords debate was on 20th April 2023. Which means that British military action against Yemen under Biden and Trump took place without any authorisation from the Commons. This simply matches US practice, as Congress never authorised Biden and Trump’s wars either.
Is this lack of interest because there is little of importance at stake? Well, in an oral statement to the Commons on April 30th, the day after, John Healey, Secretary of State for Defence, stated four reasons why the attack was important. These were, to restore the freedom of navigation; to degrade Ansar Allah’s capability; to reinforce regional security alongside allies and partners; and to protect economic security “out there.”
All sound terribly important. But as we know, “freedom of navigation” has not been restored for over two thirds of freight. Ansar Allah is no weaker now than before April 29th. Reinforcing “security alongside our allies” means sub-contracting for US foreign policy goals. And protecting “economic security out there” is just a task beyond the capacity of the British state.
Putting these facts aside for the moment, let us grant the government respect for its serious intent. One would then expect a carefully considered response from the Labour Government to the US/Ansar Allah agreement. Yet, at the time of writing, 1st June, there has been no statement inside or outside the Commons on this agreement from the British government.
Nothing better illustrates the facile character of Labour’s foreign policy. When the US President moves the Labour government feels powerless to disagree. Is it too embarrassed to agree with Trump, who has made an agreement with a party that successive British governments have treated as illegitimate, rebels, terrorists, and usurpers?
Perhaps Labour doesn’t share Trump’s view that this is a triumph. No-one else in the world does, so that is not the answer. Possibly the government expects the agreement to quickly break down. Or the government is just seeing how long it can hold its breath.
Whatever the reason for silence, we must acknowledge it is an improvement on the preceding policy. From this silence might emerge a policy that favours the Yemeni people. That would include an end to the siege and sanctions on Yemen; practically supporting reconstruction and an inclusive peace process; and the recognition that Ansar Allah will play an important part in these processes and in Yemen’s future. Nor would it go amiss to recognise that support for genocide in Gaza is behind the furore in the Red Sea. Too much to hope for, but not too much for the anti-war movement to work for.
Notes
(1) “The Paradox of intervention: How U.S. strikes in Yemen empowered the Houthis,” Maysaa Shujaa Aideen, Europe Council in Foreign Relations, 13/5/25
(2) Yemen Data Project, Reports for March & April 2025
(3) “Ras Isa Massacre: A U.S. War Crime in the Heart of the Red Sea,” Insan Organization for Rights and Freedoms, Sana’a, May 2025
(4) “How the Houthis Outlasted America,” April Langley Alley, Foreign Affairs, 9/5/25
(5) “Houthis boast of ‘hypersonic capabilities’ amid ballistic missile barrage on Israel – analysis,” Seth J. Frantzman, Jerusalem Post, 28/5/25
(6) “Why Trump Suddenly Declared Victory Over the Houthi Militia,” New York Times, 12/5/25
(7) “How Trump’s pact with the Houthis left Israel in the cold,” Giorgio Cafiero, The New Arab, 13/5/25
(8) IMF Portwatch, accessed 30/5/25
The above article was initially published here by Labour Outlook. Steve Bell is Treasurer of the Stop the War Coalition- you can follow him on Twitter/X.
Image: Donald Trump speaks at the 2024 AmericaFest in Phoenix, Arizona; Photo by Gage Skidmore; Photo cropped; licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.