By Mark Buckley
The simultaneous plummet in the Labour support and the rise in Reform UK support invites the simplistic notion that Labour voters are defecting en masse to Reform. But a sober analysis is required to determine the real trends. In politics, it is extremely important to resist either over-optimism or pessimism. It is necessary to look reality square in the face to avoid pitfalls or unforced errors.
Labour plummeting
The situation is very grim for Labour. In 2024, it lost half of the support it had when the general election campaign began. Over that short campaign, it lost 10% as voters were put off by Labour’s policies. On election day itself it polled 34.7% in Britain. (Results in Ireland are excluded from this analysis as national opinion polls very rarely include it, and so British-only comparisons are more valid.) Voters say they are deterred by Labour’s policies on the NHS, the cost of living and the economy.
Labour has then slipped much further in the opinion polls since then. From the end of May 2025 and in June three very large opinion polls were conducted which polled a combined total of almost exactly 40,000 people. On the average of these three polls Labour’s support has slipped to 23% (with minimal variation between them).
So, Labour has lost one third of its June 2024 support and is at half the level it was at the beginning of the 2024 election campaign (44%). It is not an exaggeration to say that the Starmer leadership of the Labour party and its policies are driving away voters in their droves. He is leading Labour to disaster.
The table below shows the current polling for all the major political parties in Britain, and the comparison with their 2024 general election result. The poll totals are based on the same three large opinion polls (all results can be found here).
Polling for British parties compared to 2024 general election
| LAB | CON | RFM | LD | GRN | SNP | PC | IND | |
| GE 2024 % | 34.7 | 24.4 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 3.5 |
| Average of 3 polls % | 23 | 19 | 27 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Change, rounded % | -12 | -5 | +12 | +3 | +3 | Unch | Unch | -2 |
There are a number of political forces that have an interest in promoting the idea that Reform is now taking all the Labour switchers to other parties, not least Reform itself. There are also many within the Labour leadership who are willing to echo this line, as they believe it justifies their own efforts to copy the Reform policies against migrants and migration.
Labour down 12 points since the election and Reform up 12 also lends itself to simplistic arguments that Labour’s voters have switched to Reform. But a glance at the other parties’ support undermines the appeal of the crude symmetry.
If Labour’s lost support had all gone to Reform, the rise of both the LibDems and Greens would have to be significantly accounted for by the decline in the Tory support and switching Tory voters. This would suggest that ex-Tory voters are largely immune to the appeal of Reform, and are turning leftwards, while it is Labour voters overwhelmingly turning rightwards. This is not a credible scenario.
In addition, there are three broad destinations for any voter. They can maintain their support for their chosen party, or they can switch to another, or they can stay at home. From the turnout figures in May’s elections where Labour lost in strongholds, it is clear that this was also a factor.
Thankfully, many of the polls also show how voters voted in 2024 as well as their current preference. This allows an examination of what the real trends are in voting patterns. The focus here is on Labour’s lost votes, but the Tory vote will also be mentioned.
Accounting for Labour’s lost votes
The most detailed poll showing recent voting and current allegiance is here (pdf), where YouGov asked 10,000 Labour 2024 voters about their current intentions. It completely contradicts all assertions that Labour’s 2024 support is being lost solely or even mainly to Reform.
The detail of the polling shows two different groups of people; the voters who still support Labour and those who have defected to other parties.
For the first group of those sticking with Labour, there is a clear and strong opposition to Reform. 72% of current Labour supporters would never consider voting Reform, and none would definitely vote for Reform. By contrast just 15% of current Labour supporter say they would never vote for LibDems or Greens, while 9% and 6% respectively would consider voting for them. Extremely similar patterns are evident in Labour 2024 voters as a whole, which includes voters who are current and ex-Labour supporters.
Among the second group of people, those who voted Labour in 2024 but have already switched to other parties, there is also a strong bias in terms of preference. In effect, voters who have switched either to the LibDems or Greens could be won back to Labour, but those voting Reform cannot be recovered or can but only in far smaller proportions.
The graphic produced by YouGov to illustrate these trends is reproduced below. It shows a far greater likelihood of winning back voters who have switched to LibDems and Greens than those who switched to Reform.
Taken together, the data from these polls shows:
- Labour support has fallen sharply and been scattered in different directions: LibDems, GRNs, non-voting and Reform.
- The first two categories are far bigger than the voters who have switched to Reform, both among current Labour supporters and among all Labour 2024 voters.
- There is potential to win back far greater proportions of the Labour voters who have switched to LibDems and GRNs, than it is to win back voters who switched to Reform, but of course this would require a change in political line by the Labour leadership.
It is possible to conclude that all assertions that Labour has solely or mainly lost voters to Reform are counter to the facts and false. The repeated assertion that Labour can only recover by winning back Reform voters is equally incorrect. Finally, any related assertions, for example about union membership being strongholds of Reform should also be treated with extreme scepticism. Reform is on 26% amongst all voters. If only voters of working age are counted, Reform’s vote share also falls sharply.
Voters say Labour is losing votes because it is too right-wing. It is mainly losing votes to its left or deterring voters from voting at all. It is right-wing myth-making that Labour’s is losing votes solely or mainly to Reform.
Image: based on graph at Politico; United Kingdom — Parliament voting intention, 1 year to 14 July 2025.