By Mark Buckley
The results of the May local elections were a disaster for both Labour and the Tories, but a huge benefit to Reform UK. This opens a new chapter in British politics where Labour faces two main electoral challenges on its right, the rightward moving Tories and Reform standing to their right. Only a complete change of course can change Labour’s fortunes.
Labour was defending a low point in these council seats, having done so badly in 2021. Then, voters had been so disillusioned by Starmer’s rejection of Corbyn’s policies that the Tories won the Hartlepool by-election with an unprecedented swing to the ruling party, while Labour won just 17% of the contested seats.
From this low base, the Labour leadership managed to perform qualitatively worse last week. Labour lost two-thirds of those seats won in 2021 and held just 6% of the total seats contested, a dramatic new low for Labour in any set of modern council elections. At the same time, it lost the Runcorn parliamentary by-election, despite holding a 15,000 majority at the general election and being in Labour’s top 50 safest seats.
The fact that the Tories did equally badly, also losing two-thirds of the seats they held, left the way clear for Reform UK’s gains.
It is not clear how quickly the Tories can recover from their disastrous performance at the July 2024 general election. But they should not be expected to bounce back quickly. Yet rather than show voters a clear alternative to 14 years of Tory misrule, the Labour leadership in office has rapidly disillusioned voters in just 10 months. It is Labour policies which are paving the way for Reform.
The question now arises what Labour’s response will be to such a disastrous showing. Immediately following the results, Starmer said, “I get it. This shows we must move further and faster on delivering our policies for ordinary people.”
In case there should be any doubt there were briefings to the press that the government would be further cracking down on immigration with restrictions on visa applications from Nigeria, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. There were also separate briefings suggesting that although there might be a tweak to the winter fuel allowance cuts, there is threat of further big cuts to welfare in the autumn, totalling up to £15bn.
Clearly, Starmer does not ‘get it’ at all. In opposition, Starmer decided to ape the Tories on public spending, on asylum, on war and on Covid despite the Tories’ enormous unpopularity. As a result, Labour won the 2024 election with the lowest share of the popular vote in the modern era. Since then, in government Stamer has watched the rise of Reform and decided they too must be aped on their sole consistent policy of anti-immigration. The Labour campaign was dominated by one crackdown or another immigration and asylum.
The results are clear. The policies are to attack workers and the poor, with cuts to the winter fuel allowance and welfare, more cuts threatened along with cuts to real terms pay in the public sector and underfunding public services. The campaign to demonise migrants and asylum-seekers is designed as a distraction from the effects of these policies, and the unpopular increase in military spending.
The policy only serves to decimate Labour’s support and simultaneously boost Reform, who are the big winners of Starmer’s time in office. It is Einstein’s famous definition of madness to repeat an experiment and expect a different outcome. Yet this is exactly what the Labour leadership plans.
A clear alternative is necessary, which focuses on boosting the living standards of workers and the poor, including our public services, abandons unpopular wars and the boosts to military spending, and stops demonising migrants and attacking Labour’s own supporters.