By Tom Castle
Chart of first preference votes, as published by Sky News
The outcome of the general election in the Irish Republic is likely to leave the government broadly unchanged, with the two leading parties Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael propping each other up once more in some type of coalition. There is huge relief in ruling circles in Ireland and beyond that traditional parties of the centre and right have not suffered the same collapse as has occurred in many other elections in 2024. For workers and the oppressed this failure to move forward is a grave disappointment.
FFFG-led coalition not popular
The outgoing government was comprised of the two main parties that used to dominate politics in the state, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, but they also relied on the Green party to provide a majority. This alone underscores the fragility of the political system. Gerry Adams has previously pointed out that there has been no stable single party government in Dublin since the Irish hunger strikes 40 years ago.
The two main parties Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael both shaved less than a percentage point off their votes, but this was a new low in their combined total. Yet the junior party the Green party was decimated, shedding 4.1% and losing all but one of their 12 seats. Whatever comfort the right and centre-right parties want to derive from this vote, they cannot possibly claim that it was an endorsement of the coalition, its parties or their policies.
However, unfortunately, it was Sinn Féin that was the biggest loser. Its vote share fell by 5.5% to 19%, placing it a narrow third. Worse, for much of the last term of the Dáil it had been easily the largest party in terms of polling support, reaching a high of 39% in mid-2022 and threatened to eclipse the combined FF/FG vote.
Sinn Féin is a revolutionary party, whose programme is for the overthrow of both states either side of the Irish border and the reunification of the country. As such, it represents a threat to the fundamental interests of ruling circles in Dublin, Belfast and London. Inevitably, their programme combined with their polling strength meant they faced a ferocious media onslaught on all aspects of the party’s policies and history. It was a ruling class backlash. But this must be expected and is very familiar to the party operating in the northern 6 counties.
Any genuine balance sheet of the election must address the party’s halving of its support in a little over 2 years, and the lack of defences against the vitriolic and broad-based campaign against it. The party achieved real popular success in gaining traction for its housing policy, and this needs to be replicated across all key areas of social and economic policy. Issues of internal party management and relations with other forces will all have to be candidly addressed.
The winners from the election were Labour and the Social Democrats. Neither of these parties now has much connection to the working class, the Social Democrats none at all. They are centre-right on the political spectrum and registered 9.5% between them, a gain of 2.2%. Aontú, an anti-abortion, pro-reunification party also gained 2%.
Labour and the Social Democrats will be crucial in FF/FG plans to form a coalition, as they will fall well below the threshold for government just the two parties combined. However, the wipe-out of the Greens in this election could complicate matters, as any sensible third (or fourth) party leadership would be wary of experiencing the same fate.
One bright note was the complete inability of various openly racist formations and individuals to make any progress at all, even after the widespread violent protests against asylum seekers and migrants. Fundamentally, as Ireland is not an imperialist country, it is extremely difficult to sustain political racism.
The formation of a new coalition may require prolonged horse trading. But it is certain that under another FF/FG-led government the priority will remain the interests of foreign (mainly US) multinationals, local landlords and what are known in Ireland as gombeen men; the comprador bourgeoisie. Housing, health and education will continue to deteriorate.
Ireland awaits a better outcome.
Image used in graphic: Map of Ireland political by joey22, licensed under CC0 1.0 Universal (CC0 1.0) Public Domain Dedication