By Mike Martin
During the latest Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth urged Washington’s Asian allies to spend 3.5% of their GDP on defence, arousing concern throughout the region. This aggressive push for militarisation could trigger a regional arms buildup and heighten the risk of conflict breaking out over the numerous unresolved inter-state disputes in the South China Sea such as sovereignty over islands and the delimitation of waters, and the concomitant contention over the exploitation of resources.
Acceding to Hegseth’s demands carries profound economic consequences
The end of the Vietnam war and related regional hostilities in early 1979 enabled Southeast Asian states to focus on commerce and investment, accelerated by deep regional integration via the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and more recently, the 2020 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). This shift transformed the region into a global manufacturing hub, driving rapid economic development that fuelled wider international growth.
The US’s principal military target in Asia the People’s Republic of China (PRC)
The PRC is a leading trade partner of most countries in the region as well as neighbouring Australasia. Given China’s centrality in the region’s industrial supply chains, any aggression against it would risk disrupting the entire development paradigm of East Asia. Crucially, the US remains the principal military patron of Australia, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, as well as a major export market for them. The US is also a major export market for the Taiwan province of China as well as its main provider of military equipment.
Washington’s insistences create a contradiction whereby the countries that are most deeply integrated into China’s economic dynamism are simultaneously being drawn into military structures designed to confront China. These include new missile systems, military exercises, bases, naval fleets on patrol in contested waters, and military budgets that soar as social budgets stagnate. However, in each of these countries countervailing social forces strive to push back the drive to confrontation and conflict in the region.
In Australia the peace movement strongly opposes the AUKUS pact, a trilateral security agreement between Australia, the UK, and the US. Anti-war and peace organizations criticise the deal for escalating regional tensions, driving nuclear proliferation, exorbitant costs and compromising national sovereignty:
- Prominent political campaign: Get Out of AUKUS is led by the Australian Greens who have 11 seats in the upper house and won 12.2% of the popular vote on a 90.7% turnout at the last House of Representatives election.
- Independent Public Inquiry: Frustrated by the bipartisan political support for AUKUS, the Australian Peace and Security Foundation launched a major crowd-funded, citizen-led inquiry which allows Australians to actively review the impacts of AUKUS on regional peace. Its findings are scheduled to be released in October.
- Community Engagement: Groups like The Australia Institute host regular webinars calling for greater transparency and public oversight in relation to AUKUS and other policy issues.
In Japan the February 2026 House of Representatives election saw the hard-line conservative Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secure a historic supermajority, winning 316 of the 465 seats. This massive majority allows her coalition to comfortably override the upper house. In this unproportional voting system, the LPD won 68% of the seats on 49.09% of the popular vote whereas the Japanese Communist Party won only 0.8% of the seats on 4.05% of the vote. The voting system results in the splintering and frequent recombination of smaller parties thus diluting pro-peace sentiments in the population.
Driven by Takaichi’s controversial push to remilitarise, Japan’s peace movement is mounting its largest wave of anti-war protests in decades around key actions:
- Mass Street Demonstrations: Tens of thousands of demonstrators, notably swelling numbers of younger people brandishing penlights and “No War” signs, have repeatedly rallied outside the National Diet Building in Tokyo to defend the country’s pacifist Article 9.
- Targeting Arms Exports: Activist groups have mobilised to condemn the government’s historic decision to scrap the blanket ban on arms exports and allow the sale of lethal weapons to other states.
- Condemning Regional Escalations: Anti-war coalitions have organized rallies near Tokyo Tower and US military bases to oppose the record-high defence budget, demanding immediate diplomacy over ongoing international conflicts in West Asia.
- Okinawa’s Unique Struggle: Okinawa hosts a significant portion of US military bases in Japan, and local peace activists there continue a long-standing “battle for justice” against the presence and expansion of these military installations.
The Philippines is in the midst of Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment trial which is notionally on charges of mishandling government funds and making threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. However, what is rarely reported in the Global North media is that the trial is underpinned by disagreements over foreign policy, with Duterte criticising Marcos over his lack of a “clear” independent foreign policy, pointing out that the constitution states that the Philippines should not side with any foreign country. She noted that during Marcos’ official visit to the US in July 2025, Trump had said that the Philippines had “tilted towards China” and is now “tilting towards the US”. She went on criticise the government over its actions in the West Philippine Sea, saying that the Philippines should instead “talk” with Beijing regarding the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration award on the South China Sea.
One of the priorities of the Philippine peace movement is the 2014 Philippine Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) that allows US troops rotational access for extended stays to designated Philippine military bases. It operates under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty to boost interoperability, modernise the Armed Forces, and improve humanitarian and disaster response.
The EDCA also gives the Philippines personnel access to US ships and aircraft as well as allowing the US to build and operate facilities on Philippine bases for both US and Philippine forces although the US is not allowed to establish any permanent military bases.
On 12th January 2016, the Philippine Supreme Court upheld the agreement’s constitutionality in a 10–4 vote which was confirmed with finality on 26th July 2016.
South Korea has a strong history of mass mobilisations and “candlelight protests” that have repeatedly shaped the nation’s political landscape. The most recent example is the massive civilian demonstrations that helped overturn the December 2024 martial law decree, leading to the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk-yeol.
Peace organisations are numerous and diverse
- Action for Korea United (AKU): A large coalition (nearly 1000 NGOs) promoting peaceful reunification via economic aid for defectors, cultural campaigns (like the One K Concert), and unification education.
- Peace Foundation (PF): A volunteer-driven organization (including Korean Minutemen for Peaceful Unification – KMPU) focusing on national consensus for peace, education, and unification efforts.
- Korea Peace Now! (KPN): A US-based network, including Women Cross DMZ, advocating for an end to the Korean War by building political will in the U.S. to support a peace agreement.
- BDS Korea: A feminist group focused on anti-imperialist solidarity, linking Korean struggles to Palestine’s liberation through boycotts and severing ties with Israel.
- Global Peace Foundation (GPF): Promotes a vision for a free, democratic, and unified Korea through campaigns like “One Korea Global Campaign“.
Taiwan Province: By building up the military capacity of its allies in the region and exploiting unresolved jurisdictional disputes, the US appears to be seeking to set up the means to provoke a conflict with the PRC over the Province.
Public opinion polling by National Chengchi University’s Election Study Centre reveals that only 3.8% of the population, the lowest since 2002, support ‘immediate independence’, with 1.2% supporting immediate unification. Meanwhile, 83–88% prefer the status quo, with a record high of 33.2% wanting the ‘status quo indefinitely’.
The government is currently led by the minority Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which favours close ties with the US and Japan and seeks to increase military expenditures. Among other measures, the DPP’s confrontational posture with the mainland was intensified with the 2019 Anti-Infiltration Act, aimed at curbing China’s alleged political influence on the island.
The majority opposition Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) favour stable relations with the PRC.
On 5th December 2025 the KMT and TPP postponed placing the Government’s $40 billion special defence budget in the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan’s unicameral parliament.
The DPP now lacks both a legislative and a popular mandate.
Notable civic and political entities calling for stable relationship with the PRC include:
- The Cross-Strait Peaceful Development Forum: A coalition of civic groups and political figures that regularly organizes rallies and public forums calling for the resumption of cross-Strait dialogue and advocating against arms purchases.
- Taiwan’s Labor Party: Frequently collaborates with grassroots groups, labour unions, and pro-unification advocates to campaign for economic cooperation and peaceful development across the Taiwan Strait.
- Academics and Think Tanks: Various independent policy institutes and cultural exchange groups in Taipei publish proposals emphasizing the importance of institutional dialogue, trade normalization, and avoiding actions that could escalate into military conflict.
In Conclusion, our task is to build the largest possible global majority for peace, both here in the UK and wherever else we can. We are already in the foothills of World War 3 which will be fought with nuclear weapons and poses an existential threat to humanity. We must not relent in our efforts.
Readers may find these recent articles of interest:
from the Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
- Hands off Asia! A People’s Call for Sovereignty and Solidarity on the conference which took place in Colombo on 16, 17, and 18 July.
Mike Martin is a member of Scottish CND’s trade union network.