By Michael Wongsam
China’s trading relations with Africa have strengthened enormously over the past twenty years. Whereas in 2003 the US dominated over China in terms of trade with Africa, in 2023 China was the dominant trading partner over the US in all but a tiny number of small African countries (see the figure below).
China overtook the US as Africa’s largest trading partner, and largest source of investment between 2013 – 2019. The US’s share of Africa’s foreign trade fell from 15.5% to 5.6%, while China’s share jumped from 4% to 25.6%.
At the Fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Changsha, Hunan province (12 – 15 June, 2025), China announced that all African countries will henceforth have zero tariff trade with China across all tariff lines. Additionally, it was announced that there was an intention to move towards a more diversified, high value added model. Moreover, this approach is in accord with the new practices – informed by the assertion of economic soverignty – currently gaining prominence in much of Africa as exemplified by the Alliance of Sahel States, Ghana, Botswana, and Namibia. As explicitly stated in the China-Africa Changsha Declaration, this approach is in direct contrast with that taken by the USA.
The US suspended duty free imports from Africa under its ‘African Growth and Opportunities Act’ (AGOA) on Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcements. The AGOA trade program offered preferential trade terms to selected sub-Saharan African countries for a specified range of goods provided that they meet certain criteria. The program was enacted in 2000 and renewed several times thereafter, most recently extended to September 2025.
Since joining the program several countries have become dependent on exports to the US, famously Lesotho, which was hit with a 50% ‘reciprocal’ tariff as a part of the Trump ‘Liberation Day’ announcement. Moreover, in line with the conditions imposed by the US in order to qualify for participation in the program, many countries have been suspended. These include Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Gabon, Guinea, Niger, Mali; these have all become unaligned with US interests on the continent.
There are some interesting facts that need to be considered regarding the future. The median age in Africa is 18 years, whereas it is 42 in Europe, 35 in the US, and 31 in both Asia and Latin America (see the figure below).
Africa will have a population of 2.5 Billion by 2050 – one in three young people in the world will be African. Moreover, after 2050 Africa will be the only continent with a significantly increasing population – all other continents will have decreasing or stagnant populations (see the chart below).
Therefore, an industrial transition in Africa will be a future driver of world economic growth, both in terms of an expansion of production and as an expanding market. The role that China plays in developing and financing infrastructure and capital on the African continent is crucial to this industrial transition. China’s partnership with Africa is preparing the future, while the US is locking itself into the past.