The struggle against the US war drive and climate breakdown will define humanity’s future

1. Introduction

The world has entered its greatest general crisis since World War Two. Humanity faces two issues which threaten the existence of the present basis of human civilisation.

The first is the threat that US imperialism unleashes nuclear war to block China’s rise. The timeframe for this threat is within the next 10-20 years as current economic trends show that it is within the next 20 years that the US will be qualitatively overtaken by China in terms of economic power – with all the military and other consequences that would flow from this. This poses the very real threat of whether human civilisation will survive long enough to feel the full force of climate change.

The second is the risk that global warming exceeds the critical point of 1.5C degrees higher than pre-industrial levels, breaching tipping points which are beyond the capacity of human control. The accumulating consequences of this would make large parts of the planet uninhabitable making the existing basis of human civilisation unviable. What action is taken over the next 5-10 years to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will determine whether humanity avoids catastrophic climate breakdown – the full devastating consequences of which would take longer than 10-20 years to unleash their full force.

Stopping the US drive towards a Third World War and climate breakdown are the two most decisive, and interrelated, tasks of the next two decades which must be achieved if humanity is to continue to develop.

Historic shifts in the international situation are underway

The relative decline of the United States, and the imperialist Global North as a whole, has accelerated since the financial crash of 2008, eroding the Global North’s power in spheres including economically, diplomatically and technologically.

Simultaneously socialist China has achieved momentous breakthroughs over the past decade. Most significantly:

  • Overtaking the US’s economy in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms in 2016 – as a result of China’s pioneering socialist market economic policy focused on state investment. Today China’s economy is 18% larger than the US economy (in PPP terms). In the past four years, from 2019 – 2023 which includes the pandemic, China’s economy continued to grow two and a half times as fast as the US with total growth of 20.1% for China compared to 8.1% for the US.
  • Becoming the global leader in high speed-rail, green energy, telecommunications technology, electric cars and other fields.
  • Securing “a complete victory” in the struggle to eradicate absolute poverty in 2021 – after raising more than 850 million people out of poverty in 40 years.
  • The world’s fastest increase in average real wages and peasant incomes – improving the living standards of the great majority of the population.

China’s own rise has also aided in creating space for other countries in the Global South to successfully pursue their own agendas of economic development and political independence. This has contributed to a “new mood” in the Global South as projects for South-South development such as the BRICS+ and the Belt and Road Initiative have expanded and as a majority of countries in the Global South have actively opposed the US’s increasingly aggressive foreign policy agenda by refusing to support NATO’s proxy war and sanctions against Russia and by demanding an end to the US- Israeli genocidal war on Gaza.

These developments also pose a fundamental challenge to the current world order as it has existed for centuries. As a new study published in January 2024 by the Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research and Global South Insights on ‘Hyper-Imperialism’ puts it:

“For the first time in over 600 years, there is now a credible economic and political alternative to the domination of world affairs by the Europeans and their descendant white-settler colonial states. First, is the socialist grouping led by China. Second, are the growing aspirations for national sovereignty, economic modernisation, and multilateralism, emerging from the Global South.”

The US ruling class is determined to stop this human progress. Having failed to halt the economic rise of China through cold war measures – including tariffs, sanctions, attempts at diplomatic isolation and relentless anti-China propaganda – the US is now increasingly resorting to military related means, where the US remains the global leader, in an attempt to preserve its global hegemony.

The US’s increasing reliance on military aggression has been evident on several fronts in recent years including in NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine against Russia, the US-Israeli genocidal war on Gaza and the US-led intensification of the military build-up against China in the Pacific.

The prospect of both a supposedly “limited” war against China, for example a hot war around Taiwan provoked by the US, and of a major global war – i.e. a Third World War – is openly discussed in imperialist countries by army generals, senior politicians and the media. An example of this was a speech by Britain’s former Defence Secretary Grant Shapps in January 2024 which strongly echoed the US’s international strategy. He said:

“The era of the peace dividend is over… in five years’ time we could be looking a multiple theatres {of war} involving Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.”

Should such a global war happen there is a very significant risk that it could escalate into a nuclear war with the certainty that this would destroy the existing basis of human civilisation and the possibility that its direct and indirect consequences would entirely wipe out humanity.

The new Labour government is pursuing a similar agenda to the previous Tory government and has appointed a former NATO general-secretary, George Robertson, to lead a strategic defence review. Robertson has declared that “We’re confronted by a deadly quartet of nations increasingly working together,” in a reference to China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

Humanity is currently losing the struggle to stop catastrophic levels of global warming

Humanity is threatened with another existential threat – climate breakdown, which scientists have shown is capable of threatening the foundations of human civilisation.

A recent Climate Action Tracker report points out that 2023 was a year in which “every continent experienced record-breaking heat, wildfires, tropical cyclones or some other extreme events.”

According to the European Union’s Climate Service 2023 was the warmest calendar year on record. The period from February 2023 to January 2024 saw global temperatures exceed 1.5C degrees above pre-industrial levels for the first time across an entire year.

The world is currently on track for 2.9C degrees of warming by the end of the century, which is substantially higher than the UN’s goal of limiting warming below 1.5C degrees. Keeping global temperatures below a 1.5C degrees rise is vital to avoid “tipping points” being crossed which would trigger further temperature rises outside of human control such as the melting of the Arctic Ice and Siberian permafrost.

The difference between keeping below 1.5C degrees and reaching 2.9C degrees of global warming is the difference between a future with the potential for prosperity, natural abundance and sustainable development, and a future where much of the world is threatened by scarcity of food and water, frequently battered by climate induced extreme weather events and increased disease and suffers from more frequent pandemics.

A 1.5C degrees rise in global temperatures is not ‘safe’ – but there is a qualitative difference between limiting global warming below 1.5C degrees and a 2C degrees or a 3C degrees rise. To give one example, heatwave exposure rises from 3.9 billion people at 1.5C degrees, to 5.9 billion people at 2C degrees, to 7.9 billion people at 3C degrees.

Imperialist countries are overwhelmingly responsible for today’s climate crisis and are refusing to take the necessary action to sufficiently reduce their carbon and other greenhouse gases emissions or meet their obligations to pay for the transition in countries less responsible for the climate crisis. Protecting fossil fuel capital is the key priority for imperialism, not defending the overall interests of humanity and its future.

In 2023, G20 fossil fuel subsidies and investment reached their highest ever levels. Imperialism’s drive towards war with Russia and China is draining immense resources away from the massive levels of green investment which are required to achieve a rapid transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy over the next decade.

The struggles to stop the US war drive and climate breakdown will determine humanity’s future. It is therefore vital that socialists play a leading part both of these struggles.

The international forces opposing this drive led by US imperialism

Internationally the most powerful and consistent forces against this US attack on humanity are socialist countries – principally China, but also involving Vietnam, Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. Many other major forces, including countries in the Global South that are capitalist, will be involved alongside the working class and oppressed within the imperialist states.

On the question of climate change in addition to the progressive role China is playing on the issue and the push from the Global South for the Global North to take greater climate action including providing finance to support a green transition in the Global South, there has been a powerful radicalisation of young people and other groups in the Global North and there remains sections of capital in the Global North that favour a green transition – although this section of capital is weaker than the fossil fuel industry.

Building the broadest global united fronts against the dual threats of the US war drive and climate breakdown are the most decisive tasks for socialists. The timeframe for both these struggles is acute – the next 10 years are critical.

2. The global economy: the US’s relative decline and China’s rise

The global economic situation is characterised by two trends:

  • In the Global North – economic stagnation, falling living standards and a focus on increasing military spending to stop the rise of China and protect US hegemony.
  • In major parts of the Global South – economic growth, promotion of initiatives for economic cooperation and development and opposition to the resources wasted on the Global North’s war-drive.

According even to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook in January 2024, despite the IMF being biased in favour of the imperialist Global North and against China and the Global South, the Global South will continue to grow more than 2 times as fast as the Global North over the next two years:

  • In 2023 the advanced economies grew by 1.6% whilst the emerging market and developing economies grew by 4.1%. The Global South therefore grew two and a half times the rate of the Global North.
  • It is projected that in 2024 the advanced economies will grow by 1.5% whilst the emerging market and developing economies will grow by 4.1%. In 2025 it is projected that the advanced economies will grow by 1.8% whilst the emerging market and developing economies will grow by 4.2%.

This pattern of growth in the Global North and Global South mirrors the pattern of growth of the world’s two leading economies – the US and China:

  • The US – the leading superpower in the Global North – grew by 2.5% in 2023 and is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025.
  • China – the leading superpower in the Global South – grew by 5.2% in 2023 – more than twice as fast as the US.
  • China has projected it will double its GDP between 2020 and 2035, requiring a 4.7% growth rate, which is more than twice the long term growth rate of the US. So far China is growing above its target.

The growth of the US economy has been gradually slowing down since the 1950s – as the graph below shows.

(Graph published in Hyper-Imperialism: A Dangerous Decadent New Stage)

Today the US’s average annual economic growth rate is less than half its growth rate in the 1960s, down to only 2.1%. In the last 20 years, to 2023, China’s annual growth rate has been 8.1% and the US’s has been 2.0%.

In 2016 China’s economy became the largest in the world, overtaking the US economy (PPP), and is now 18% larger than the US economy. If their present growth rates continue by 2035 China’s economy will be 60% larger than the US’s – turning China’s present quantitative lead in GDP size over the US into a qualitative one.

The US ruling class considers this rise of China as an existential threat to its global hegemony. Under the Trump Presidency in 2017 the US launched a new cold war offensive which aimed to significantly slow down China’s economy to a level the US could compete with. This US attack on China was continued by the Biden administration. This strategy has failed.

The economic rise of China and relative decline of the US has continued apace. Over the past 4 years, from 2019 to 2023, China’s economy grew 20.1% whilst the US’s grew only 8.1%. China’s economy has grown two and a half times as fast as the US’s over the past 4 years.

The US will need an extreme right wing regime to attempt to re-build the US economy

China’s economic success is driven by an economic policy that prioritises high levels of state investment. According to the latest available data China invests 42% of its GDP whereas the US only invests 21% of its GDP

To be in a position to compete with China the US ruling class needs to drive up the rate of exploitation of the working class both domestically and internationally in order to extract the capital required to boost the US’s investment.

US imperialism has operated on the basis of parasitic mode of capital accumulation since the 1980s when the US became a net importer of capital. The same process took place with the decline of British imperialism, which stopped being an exporter of capital from the early 1930s.

The scale of the US’s dependence on net capital imports reached a staggering $1 trillion by 2022. This means the US has no major economic “carrots” to give to its allies in the Global North and Global South but on the contrary needs to extract surplus from them.

Despite importing $1 trillion from the rest of the world in 2022, the US continues to fail to compete with China. The Biden administration’s various attempts to grow the US economy – from ‘Build Back Better’ to the ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ – have not succeeded in raising the US’s average growth rate.

US imperialism therefore cannot resolve this situation and re-build its economy through small scale measures. A combination of a very aggressive foreign policy and a huge qualitative increase in the exploitation of the working class within the US is objectively required for capital. This scale of attack on humanity could only be achieved through an extreme right wing authoritarian, or even a fascist, regime.

The scale of the attack the US ruling class would have to carry out on its own working class to re-launch rapid capitalist economic growth can be seen clearly by making an historic comparison. The data in the graph below shows that the post World War Two boom in the US economy was created by a transfer of 23% of GDP into capital creation by means of the Great Depression and World War Two – in current prices a transfer of over $6 trillion to capital. On the basis of these huge defeats of the US working class the US entered more than three decades of rapid economic growth.

At that time, due to the great historic strength of US imperialism in this period, this was carried out via horrific racist repression of the US Black working class and a World War but without the need for extreme right wing authoritarianism or fascism. In the present conditions, with US imperialism far weaker than at the peak of its power, such a recovery of the US capitalist class would require an extreme right wing authoritarian regime with the US, further extreme oppression of the US Black working class, and large scale aggression abroad – tendencies which at their most extreme, go strongly in the direction of fascism. The political forces around Trump, while right wing authoritarian and not fascist, show the beginning of the direction of such a trend.

3. The extent of US military power and imperialism’s war drive

Despite its relative economic decline the US continues to be by far the world’s leading military power.

The extent of the US’s dominance in the military sphere is well documented in the Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research’s ‘Hyper-imperialism’ study.

The study reveals that:

  • The US’s military spending is more than twice the amount acknowledged by the US government – at a staggering $1.5 trillion in 2022.
  • The US has 902 overseas foreign military bases “heavily concentrated in bordering regions or buffer zones around China.”
  • The US and its allies – “an integrated military political, and economic bloc composed of 49 countries” – control 74.3% of all military spending globally. China accounts for 10.2% of military spending and Russia 3%.
  • The US spends 21 times more on its military per person than China does.

Russia and China, both nuclear armed powers, are not ‘aggressors’ that pose a threat to the world. Both have a defensive military posture.

The US has developed a ‘counterforce architecture’ which aims to achieve nuclear primacy over Russia and China and first strike capability – i.e. US imperialism’s nuclear policy is to strive for the capacity to start and ‘win’ a nuclear war.

In response to this threat – which would not only destroy Russia and China but threaten the survival of all humanity should a nuclear winter ensue – Russia and China have invested in strategic weapons technology and systems to counter Washington’s attempts to develop first strike nuclear capability.

Imperialism’s war-drive

To compensate for its failure to compete with China economically the US is increasingly resorting to military aggression.

This has been evident on several fronts in recent years:

  • NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine against on RussiaThe US pushed for NATO’s eastern expansion in the full knowledge that this was a red-line issue for Russia – risking a war in Ukraine if Russia did not accept this US expansion of its NATO military alliance up to its border. Since February 2022, rather than negotiate a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine – which was possible – the US/NATO escalated its proxy war, pouring tens of billions of dollars’ worth of military aid into Ukraine, resulting in the killing of hundreds of thousands of people, all with the aim of “weakening Russia.” European powers capitulated to Washington and have fully supported this proxy war against Russia – sending billions of euros worth of military aid and imposing anti-Russia sanctions which have weakened Europe’s economy, compromised its energy security and fuelled the huge cost of living crisis. Foreign policy strategists in Washington calculate that weakening Russia, with the ultimate aim of isolating it from China and subordinating Russia to the US, is a key objective if it is to attempt to defeat China.
  • The US-backed Israeli genocidal war on Gaza
    In Israel the US has accepted the most right-wing government in the history of this brutal settler-colonial state – a far right government which has an explicit agenda of attempting to crush by force any hope of Palestinian liberation via ethnic cleansing and genocidal attacks. Israel would not be in a position to wage its genocidal attack on Gaza without US support. A retired IDF Major General, Itzhak Brick, explained this clearly when he said the following in November 2023: “All of our missiles, the ammunition, the precision-guided bombs, all the aeroplanes and the bombs, it’s all from the US. The minute they turn off the tap, you can’t keep fighting. You have no capability. Everyone understands that we can’t fight this war without the United States. Period.”
    Between October 7 and December 25 2023 the US sent 230 cargo planes and 20 ships loaded with weapons and military equipment to Israel. The US has repeatedly blocked the UN Security Council from adopting a resolution in favour of a ceasefire in Gaza. The precise voting pattern at the UN General Assembly outlines the international situation graphically: on UN resolution A/ES-10/L.25 (October 2023) for a Gaza ceasefire 14 countries opposed the resolution, led by the US, and 120 were in favour.
    The US has also been widening the war in West Asia through bombing Yemen, Iraq and Syria. In light of the US and NATO’s failure to achieve a military victory in Ukraine since 2022 the US requires in qualitative terms a “victory” for Israel against the Palestinians in Gaza to bolster its status internationally as the global policeman.

  • The US-led military build-up against China

The US has intensified its military build-up against China, through increasing its military presence in the region, pushing its key ally Japan to remilitarise and launching a new anti-China military pact, AUKUS, in 2021 with Australia and Britain. The US has eroded its support for the ‘One China’ policy – promoting and arming forces in Taiwan for “Taiwan independence” in a blatant attack on China’s sovereignty and attempt to destabilise the region.

The US has been successful in subordinating the other imperialist countries – including Britain, France, Germany, Japan and Australia – to its agenda. As the ‘Hyper-imperialism’ study explains the US leads “an integrated military, political, and economic bloc composed of 49 countries.”

This situation reflects a fundamental change in the organisation of the Global North. In previous global crises of the imperialist system, as shown in World War One and World War Two, there was a violent clash between imperialist powers. The Global South, including socialist forces, operated in that overall context.

The main contradiction in the world today is not between imperialist powers but between an integrated imperialist bloc led by the US against socialist China and the Global South.

Contradictions within the imperialist Global North camp continue to exist, and progressives should of course attempt to exploit these wherever they exist, but they are of a secondary character.

Britain is a craven junior partner to the US’s war-drive

The previous Tory government, supported by and the Starmer led Labour opposition, distinguished itself internationally as continuing Britain’s historic role of being the most hawkish followers of the US in the present situation of the US’s war drive against Russia and China. The new Labour government is pursuing the same course and increasing Britain’s support for NATO’s war against Russia.

The previous Tory government’s Integrated Review Refresh 2023 singled out China as posing “an epoch-defining challenge to the type of international order we want to see.” This echoes the US’s rhetoric on China being the US’s “biggest geopolitical test” of the 21st century. Britain is part of the anti-China AUKUS military pact alongside Australia and the US and has signed a ‘defence’ deal with Japan – both of these are evidence of Britain’s growing involvement in the US-led military build-up against China. The appointment of a former NATO general secretary to lead the new Labour government’s strategic defence review indicates this involvement will most likely continue.

Britain has supported the US in escalating NATO’s proxy war in Ukraine. In April 2022 British PM Boris Johnson helped sabotage a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia on Washington’s behalf. From February 2022 to 2024, Britain gave Ukraine £4.6 billion in military aid, with another £2.5 billion being sent in 2024/25 – making a total of £7.1 billion in military assistance for Ukraine in 3 years. Britain has also trained 30,000 Ukrainian military personnel.

Military spending for 2024/25 has risen to £51.7 billion compared to £45.9 billion in 2021/22. This outsized military budget is draining resources away from wages, public services and green investment. The Labour government aims to further raise military spending to 2.5% of its GDP.

4. The far right is on the ascendancy in the Global North

The main trend in the Global North is characterised by prolonged economic weakness, and relative decline, with the main imperialist powers in Europe and Japan near economic stagnation, which is leading to significant economic attacks on the working class in the imperialist countries and preparations for military threats against Russia and China – which include substantial increases in military spending amongst leading imperialist countries allied to the US such as Britain, Germany, France, Australia and Japan.

In order to carry out these economic attacks on the working class every reactionary campaign will be utilised to attempt to divide the working class and to divert attention from and conceal the true scale of these attacks.

The whipping up of racism against Black and Asian communities and other racialised groups will be an absolutely central part of the capitalist offensive in the Global North. Sexism will also be a fundamental part of the reactionary offensive – including attempts to reverse existing gains achieved by women, as the historic attacks on abortion rights unfolding and escalating in the US indicate. Attacks on LGBT communities and disabled people will also be ratcheted up with the overall goal of consolidating reactionary ideological blocs in North America and Europe.

Within this framework there is an increasing attempt to legitimise as part of the “mainstream” right wing forces that were previously considered to be the extreme right.

Biden’s term as US President has seen his policies collide with the interests of the mass of the US population. Real wages have been lower throughout his Presidency than when he came into office three years ago, the war drive has escalated, military spending has increased at the expense of social spending, the promised Green New Deal has not materialised and Biden has done nothing to mount an effective campaign against the attack on abortion rights.

As a consequence of this Trump therefore has a real chance of winning the US Presidential election, despite the change of Democrat presidential candidate from Biden to Harris. This would be a step towards an extreme right wing, authoritarian regime that ruthlessly attacks the working class and oppressed in the US and internationally – with an agenda of warmongering, climate vandalism, racism, Islamophobia and sexism. Internationally Trump would even more aggressively support Israel than the Biden administration – as shown by Trump’s earlier move of the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem – and will increase hostility against China, alongside other reactionary policies. Trump would end the present, albeit inadequate, US policies to avert climate change adopted by the Biden administration. In short, a Trump administration would be a serious step in the wrong direction regarding both existential threats facing humanity – the threat of war and of climate change.

Parallel to this trend in the US, the rise of the far right is a major threat in Europe – including in Italy where the far right Meloni is Prime Minister, in Germany where the Alternative for German (AfD) is on the rise, in France where Le Pen leads a mass party of the far right, in the Netherlands where Geert Wilders leads the largest party in the Dutch parliament, and in Britain where a wave of racist and fascist riots was organised this summer, the far right party Reform UK came third in the July general election and its leader Nigel Farage is overwhelmingly popular amongst the Tory Party membership.

5. China is deepening its socialist orientation and transition to clean energy

China’s political leadership has deepened its socialist orientation under Xi Jinping with a focus on the leading role of the Communist Party of China and the ‘Marxification’ of society. Central to China’s present framework are the concepts of building ‘common prosperity’ and an ‘ecological civilisation’ – i.e. continuing to raise living standards and creating a sustainable development model.

Following China’s historic achievement of eliminating extreme poverty, China has unleashed a wave of new progressive reforms under the banner of ‘common prosperity’ which aimed to crack down on billionaires, the private sector and celebrity culture, tackle inequality, improve income distribution, improve the education system and strengthen the welfare state.

On solutions to the climate crisis China has led the world through its massive investments in renewables, electric vehicles, reforestation and green public transport.

In 2022 nearly half of the world’s “low-carbon spending” took place in China according to BloombergNEF. China spent $546 billion in 2022 on investment that included solar and wind energy, electric vehicles and batteries. That was nearly four times the amount of US investments, which totalled $141 billion, whilst the European Union was second to China with $180 billion clean energy investment.

China’s green energy investment increased to $890 billion in 2023, almost as large as the total global investments in fossil fuels, and responsible for 40% of China’s growth in GDP. As a result of this, analysis suggests that China’s emissions may peak and begin to fall this year as green energy growth matches growth in total energy demand. Peaking emissions in 2024 would be 6 years ahead of China’s 2030 target and align it with a 1.5C trajectory.

However, this is threatened by the continued growth of new coal plants in China, and will depend on whether new coal use is “constrained” and only used as flexible back-up as indicated by Xi Jinping, but not yet reflected in official targets.

Internationally China is in the process of “greening” the Belt and Road Initiative. Since 2021 no new coal plants have been developed and in the first half of 2023 solar, wind and hydro took up about 55% of energy-related construction and investment facilitated by the Belt and Road Initiative.

The graph below shows the ‘greening’ of the Belt and Road Initiative over the past decade:

It is only in within the past decade that global annual clean energy investment has been larger than fossil fuels, and now it outstrips fossil fuel investment by 70%. This trend, driven by China, has the potential to transform the global energy market and provides hope for humanity.

China has firmly stood up to the US’s attacks on itself. China has vocally opposed the US’s general war drive and has pushed a progressive diplomatic agenda based on peace. Key diplomatic initiatives for peace have included:

  • In February 2023 China put forward a 12-point peace plan on Ukraine, calling for dialogue and negotiations to achieve a peaceful settlement of the war based on guarantees for the security of both Ukraine and Russia.
  • In March 2023 China brokered an agreement between arch-rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia to re-establish diplomatic relations – a blow to the US’s regional strategy in West Asia which aims to isolate Iran.
  • In January 2024 China proposed a Gaza peace conference with a call for an immediate ceasefire and measures to ensure the rapid and barrier-free delivery of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip. China has consistently called for the establishment of an independent and sovereign Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

The combination of China’s progressive foreign policy and its status as an economic superpower has won over allies in the Global South. US foreign policy is based on subordinating and dominating developing countries. China is offering a different model of international relations – a model that is based on respect for other countries’ sovereignty and ‘win-win’ economic cooperation.

6. The Global South is rising

The Global South is rising. As shown in the graph below, at the end of the Cold War in 1993 the Global North accounted for 57.2% of the global GDP (PPP), while the Global South accounted for 42.8%. By 2022, thirty years later, the Global South reached 59.4% of global GDP with the Global North falling to 40.6%.

(Graph published in Hyper-Imperialism: A Dangerous Decadent New Stage)

This trend is continuing – with the Global South projected to grow two and a half times faster than the Global North in 2024.

Projects for South-South economic cooperation have expanded greatly – a clear rejection of the US’s cold war strategy which has attempted to break up China and Russia’s trade with the rest of the world. The Global South refused to go along with the Global North’s sanctions against Russia – the countries that have sanctioned Russia over Ukraine represent only 16% of the world’s population.

Major forums of South-South cooperation include:

  • China’s Belt and Road Initiative was established in 2013 and in 10 years attracted the support of more than 150 countries and international organisations. There are 3,000 projects in the BRI worth $1 trillion.
  • In August 2023 BRICS expanded by inviting six countries to join: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Argentina (Argentina declined the invitation following the election of a far right President in October 2023). BRICS10 added 4% to the BRICS’s share of the world GDP (PPP) – which is now 35.6% compared to the G7’s 30.3%.
  • Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a Eurasian political, economic, international security and defence organisation established by China and Russia in 2001. 40% of the world population is in the SCO.
  • The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a regional grouping promoting economic and security cooperation. ASEAN countries have a total population of 662 million and combined GDP of $3.2 trillion.

The trend towards greater political independence in the Global South

As Tricontinental’s ‘Hyper-imperialism’ study points out the Global South – mainly consisting of developing countries in Latin America, Asia, Africa and Oceania – is not a “unified group or bloc.” Rather “these 145 countries each have distinct ideologies and political agendas, with differences in proximity and orientation towards each other and Global North countries.”

Whilst the Global South is heterogeneous, a common agenda in favour of economic development and political independence from Washington’s diktats has emerged.

In Africa examples of this new independent trend include:

  • In the Sahel region there has been an advance of the anti-imperialist struggle with successful coups against French imperialism including in Mali (2021), Burkina Faso (2022) and Niger (2023).
  • An African peace mission advocated for a peaceful settlement of the proxy war in Ukraine in June 2023. The mission sent a delegation to Ukraine and Russia to discuss a pathway to a peaceful resolution of the war and comprised of leaders and representatives from seven countries – Comoros, Congo-Brazzaville, Egypt, Senegal, Uganda, Zambia and led by South Africa.
  • South Africa brought a case accusing Israel – the US’s proxy in West Asia – of committing genocide against the Palestinian people in Gaza to the International Court of Justice in December 2023.

Polarisation in Latin America – the far right is rising and the left is becoming more radical

The situation in Latin America is characterised by a polarisation – both the left and the right have deep social roots and mass support.

Extreme right wing, authoritarian forces with a mass base and links to the far right in the United States have emerged in Brazil (Bolsonaro won the Presidential election in 2018) and Argentina (Milei won the Presidential election in 2023) – replacing the unpopular centre-right. The extreme right wing has been able to win elections in Brazil and Argentina when centre left forces have undermined their own support by implementing austerity.

The region’s socialist and most left wing governments– Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Bolivia – have successfully defeated relentless US aggression in recent years including coup attempts, sanctions and violent campaigns of de-stabilisation.

The left has regained the leadership of Brazil and, in an historic breakthrough, has formed the government in Colombia, Latin America’s third largest state. The left now controls the government in all three of Latin America’s largest countries – Brazil, Mexico and Colombia.

Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Bolivia have all become closer to China over the past few years – with China playing a key role as a partner for investment, sharing technology and economic development.

Bolivia’s former President Evo Morales has been particularly clear on what the rise of China means, stating on the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China:

“We salute the brotherly people of China and its leader Xi Jinping in the 100 years of founding the Communist Party of China, which led the construction of a world economic power defeating imperialism, feudalism and capitalism.”

But unlike the situation in Asia, with the Communist Parties of China and Vietnam, with the exception of Cuba, the lack of mass Marxist-Leninist parties to lead the left in Latin America is its key weakness.

Linked to this is a weakness of the left in Latin America – particularly in Venezuela – in its economic policy. Under Chavez Venezuela launched a ‘revolution in distribution’ but not a ‘revolution in production.’ This weakness left the Venezuelan economy weak and vulnerable to the crash in commodity prices from 2014 and the severe economic attacks of the US. There are, however, indications that Venezuela is now beginning to learn from China’s successful socialist economic policy – which has been based on a “revolution in production” i.e. on massive state-led investment. During a trip to Shanghai in November 2023 Venezuelan President Maduro commented that the Venezuelan economy “is in a transition, which has the Chinese model as a reference.” Venezuela is once more in the firing line of US imperialism and of course must be defended.

The left in Brazil – Latin America’s most populous and powerful country – has become clearer and more radical following the US’s soft coup against the Workers Party (PT) from 2016 which culminated in the imprisonment of Lula on trumped up charges of corruption, denying him the opportunity to stand in the 2018 Presidential election which he would have won.

Following this experience Lula explained in an interview in 2020 that he had “much more clarity” on the role of the US Department of Justice in this political persecution and the US’s project to subordinate Brazil to the US. He said: “Brazil has given away its freedom and its independence and it salutes an American President… Brazil has regressed to the status of a colony.”

Dilma Rousseff, former President of Brazil and now President of the BRICS Bank, has also been radicalised by the US’s aggression against her and the PT. She has said: “Our place is not with the United States. Our place is independent and alongside China.”

7. Perspectives for socialists in Britain after the defeat of Corbyn

These international forces combine in a specific way in Britain – which is today the most supine ally of the US within its imperialist bloc.

The left in Britain suffered a crushing defeat after the General Election in 2019 when Labour lost and Jeremy Corbyn resigned as leader of the Labour Party.

Corbyn won the leadership of the Labour Party in 2015 on a progressive programme of opposing austerity, racism, climate change and wars – inspiring a new mass movement in the wake of this victory. This development saw the leadership of the Labour Party taken by reformist but progressive ant-imperialist forces that had been developing within the Labour movement for decades and led by figures such as Tony Benn, Ken Livingstone, Diane Abbott and Corbyn himself. This was the first time that the leadership of the Labour Party had been taken by forces that did not, at best, simply want more spoils of British imperialism to be shared with sections of the British working class, but which was opposed to fundamental policies of British imperialism.

The British ruling class, together with imperialist states such as the US and the colonial settler state of Israel, was therefore determined to destroy the Corbyn project and relentlessly attacked him and the movement.

Political weakness of the left on major issues in the class struggle compromised Corbyn’s leadership. The biggest of these mistakes was the failure to stand up to the ruling class’ smears that equated Corbyn’s defence of Palestinian rights with antisemitism.

What the defeat of Corbyn represents is the defeat of Bennism – that is the left trend within social democracy led by internationalists such as Benn, Livingstone, Abbott and Corbyn. This left trend, fuelled by progressive mass struggles in the wider society from the 1980s onwards reaching into Labour, contributed significantly to all aspects of progressive campaigns in Britain on issues of imperialism, women, gay and lesbian liberation, anti-racism, the environment and other key issues over decades.

This progressive trend, alongside the radicalisation to the left of the Labour Party from 1968 (which has dwindled in size and large parts have significantly degenerated), grew out of international struggles and victories against imperialism and oppression, i.e. the struggles for national independence against colonialism; the victory of the Vietnamese people in their war against US imperialism; the struggle against Apartheid South Africa; the Palestine national liberation movement; the Ireland national liberation movement; the solidarity with the left in Latin America; and domestically mass struggles such as those against women’s oppression, racism, homophobia and disablism.

The defeat of these currents – led in the recent period by Corbyn – has led to a political regression within the left and labour movement with the increased weight of currents Lenin accurately described as “imperialist economism” – that is, currents which pursue an approach of seeking to improve the economic conditions of some sections of British workers but which fail to oppose the international policies of imperialism or to defend and push forward the struggle of the oppressed – such as those of women, Black and Asian groups, LGBT communities and disabled people. The reactionary character of such currents is not their support for the struggle for economic demands of the working class, which are progressive, but the placing of this within a framework which fails to oppose British imperialism or the attacks on the most oppressed and exploited sections of society. For example, they reduce the issue of the riots to the question of austerity and so completely overlook the issue of racism and the need to tackle it.

New anti-imperialist currents in Britain will grow in an intertwined way with the new international struggles against imperialism that are taking place today – the incredible Palestine solidarity movement in Britain that has erupted in response to Israel’s barbaric attack on Gaza is a clear indication of this. They will also be defined by the struggle against attacks on the most oppressed within Britain.

The most right wing Labour government since WWII

The July 2024 General Election in Britain has led to the formation of the most right wing Labour government since WWII. Starmer is beginning to carry out the same policies as the Tories. This is already making Labour unpopular, as with the recent Tory government, and this opens the way for an even more extreme Tory government led by the far right. On the two decisive struggles facing humanity, war and climate crisis – Starmer is fully committed to the US-led war drive whilst the decision to ditch Labour’s pledge to invest £28 billion a year on green spending gives a clear indication that his government will not be committed to the radical action needed to save the planet.

Before the general election, Starmer’s Labour leadership offered no real opposition to the Tory government and in fact attacked the Tories from the right on issues such as migration, refugees, human rights, as it had previously over the Covid19 pandemic. Within a few weeks of becoming Prime Minister, Starmer had introduced further austerity measures, which will be added to in the October budget. He is firmly following the US’s aggressive foreign policy agenda. Racism is being whipped up by this new government on the issue of immigration, aiding the further growth of the populist and far right.

Starmer’s central focus over the past four years has been to crush the labour left. The leadership of the Corbyn movement has been removed and a large part of the base too. Many of those remaining have either been cowed into silence or disillusioned into inactivity.

While it is obviously not possible to predict the forms resistance will take against the Starmer government, every form of progressive opposition outside, and also within, the Labour Party itself should be supported. Large movements, for example on Palestine, will inevitably have a reflection within the Labour Party. However, Starmer has used Labour’s bureaucratic apparatus to outlaw and suppress progressive forces within the Party to a far greater extent than under previous right wing Labour leaders. For example, even under Blair, Brown, Callaghan and Wilson it was possible to express opposition to NATO within Labour including the Parliamentary Labour Party. Criticism of NATO might now lead to disciplinary action, possibly expulsion, under Starmer.

Left opposition to Starmer from within the Labour Party, therefore, starts at a low ebb and faces significant disciplinary and other bureaucratic threats.

Forces outside the Labour Party will oppose Starmer’s direction – including on the electoral field

Under these conditions – a rotten Labour government pursuing more war and more austerity- there will be progressive forces that will stand candidates to the left of Labour, as started to happen at July’s general election.

It is not objectively possible to build a mass left alternative to the Labour Party as long as: a) the Labour Party has its present structure, with its organic links to the mass working class organisations, above all the trade unions; b) and in the context of the present electoral system – unless the working class breaks with social democratic consciousness, which is not on the agenda.

In other parts of Europe the electoral system, and in a number of countries the much weaker links of the social democratic parties with mass trade union organisations, have created the space for left social democratic parties with a mass base to be created outside the traditional mass social democratic parties. This includes Melenchon’s La France Insoumise, Die Linke in Germany, Podemos in Spain and others. In Britain, however, without a change in the structure of the Labour Party and/or the First Past The Post electoral system the space for such left social democratic parties with a mass base does not exist.

This is why repeated attempts over decades to establish such parties with any mass support have and will continue to fail. There must be no illusions on this. However, in addition to supporting all forms of mass resistance to the policies of a Starmer government, and any opposition to this within the Labour Party, supporting progressive candidates to the left of Labour, on a case-by-case basis, is part of building the fight back. The most important of these to date was the re-election of Jeremy Corbyn to Parliament at the July general election, after his anti-democratic exclusion as Labour candidate in Islington North. There were also other progressive candidates who ran at that election.

To help to strengthen left forces in the coming period, both inside and outside the Labour Party:

  • All attempts to weaken the links between the Labour Party and the trade unions must be opposed, as these form part of capital’s attempt to get an even firmer grip on the main social democratic party – this includes opposing proposals by left wing trade unions to disaffiliate from Labour.
  • The introduction of proportional representation should be supported as this would, under present conditions, create more favourable conditions for left wing forces to express themselves on the electoral level. It will, however, also allow for the direct election and national representation of ultra-right wing forces.

8. Priorities for progressive forces in Britain

Building resistance to the war drive and climate breakdown in Britain

Faced with the US’s massive attack on humanity, and Britain’s junior role in this, the most important priority for socialists in Britain is building the movements against war and climate breakdown.

This is not a period where major victories are possible in Britain, but major radicalisations are. This has also been evident with the massive mobilisation against the US-Israeli genocidal war on Gaza – led by the Palestine Solidarity Campaign and the Muslim community. This movement is the largest and most sustained anti-war movement in decades, since the Vietnam War. Significant mobilisations also took place against the recent racist and fascist riots. Prior to this, and continuing, has been the recent waves of radicalisation on the issue of climate change, which saw youth climate strikers and the grassroots direct action group Extinction Rebellion lead the way. Given the present international situation, and the reactionary trends in imperialist countries including Britain, radicalisations will continue in the coming period.

It is vital to build up opposition to the intensifying US war drive – the new cold war offensive – which is increasingly turning hot – against China. The initiatives of the international campaign No Cold War and No Cold War Britain should be supported.

The launch event of No Cold War was incredibly successful – reports of the meeting received 100 million hits on Chinese social media.

Since then the No Cold War campaign has cooperated with mass forces in the Global South and leading intellectuals, journalists and social movements from across the world in producing events, dialogues, briefings, books, articles and social media content. The campaign’s leadership body has representation from Africa, Asia, Latin America, Europe and North America.

The setting up of No Cold War Britain in 2021 was another important step. This campaign has provided a consistent voice against Britain’s involvement in the US-led war drive against China and against NATO’s proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. No Cold War Britain has of course opposed Israel’s assault on Gaza.

The main targets of the US’s war drive are China and Russia. This means that currents on a line of “Neither Washington nor Beijing” are incapable of providing leadership in the struggle against imperialism’s war drive – as they have shown in practice. These currents’ failure to grasp imperialism’s role meant they could not effectively lead opposition to the wars on Libya and Syria. They also took the wrong position faced with the war in Ukraine.

The anti-war movement needs an anti-imperialist leadership if it is to mount a consistent and effective opposition. This means strengthening the anti-imperialist currents in the movement and building the campaigns – No Cold War and No Cold War Britain – which have adopted the correct political line in being clear that the aggressor is the US and its allies and that China and Russia are not the enemy. This line is a minority in Britain but internationally it is a majority position.

Building an anti-imperialist anti-war movement is vital in this current period.

Ireland’s partition is a clear expression of the oppression of the Irish people by British imperialism. The long struggle for reunification has been advancing, but continues to face determined opposition from the British ruling class.

On the question of climate change the international green transition needed to prevent catastrophe – which is needed in the next decade – will need to be achieved long before the global victory of socialism. However, it should be stressed that without the role of actually existing socialism today in China it would be impossible to avert climate breakdown. The role China is playing, with its enormous investments in green energy, has the potential to transform the global energy market – which is absolutely essential to achieving the goal of limiting global temperature rises below 1.5C degrees – and is not something that the imperialist countries of the Global North are doing.

As climate breakdown needs to be prevented before global socialism is possible it is imperative that socialists seek to forms the broadest possible united action to fight against climate change – including the working class and oppressed and also even sections of capital which understand, for their own reasons, that the present trajectory of carbon emissions is leading to a global catastrophe.

Opposing the racist offensive

Racism is deeply built into British capitalist society – with its roots in colonialism. The evolution of British capitalism was fuelled by slavery, domination, inhumane exploitation and barbarism.

Today racist campaigns are the political cutting edge of the capitalist offensive which attempts to divide the working class. Austerity has led to an increase in these divide-and-rule tactics, with racism used to promote division and distract attention away from the real problems facing the working class and oppressed.

Racism and Islamophobia impacts every aspect of life – from the racist pay gap and unemployment to experiences in health, housing, to outright repression by the State. The recent racist riots struck fear into many Muslim and black communities.

Ideologically the racist offensive is multi-pronged and includes: constant campaigns against asylum-seekers and migrant workers; strip-searching Black children in schools; stop and search of young Black and Asian men; physical attacks on Muslim women wearing the Hijab; and violent attacks organised by the fascists and far right.

Racism was central to the Sunak government and it was strongly aided by the right wing of the Labour movement. After the defeat of the Ed Miliband-led Labour party in the 2015 general election, in the subsequent party leadership contest the Labour right wing candidates claimed, without evidence, that the party had lost the election in large part because it had not been tough enough immigration – a false claim that Corbyn spoke out against. In fact, the party had gone into the 2015 election campaign as the only major party (excluding UKIP) with a pledge to curb immigration. With the election of Corbyn as Labour leader, and with a key role being played by Abbott as Shadow Home Secretary, this rhetoric was abandoned by Labour. Immediately after Corbyn’s removal as leader this racist rhetoric and policy was resumed.

The huge Black Lives Matter mobilisations in 2020 reflected a radicalisation on the issue of racism.

Important have also been the summer 2024 mobilisations against racism and fascism, across numerous towns and cities, in which Stand Up To Racism played a crucial role.

It is clear that the racists and fascists will continue to target specific groups and communities such as people seeking asylum, Black people and Muslim communities. Inevitably, they will rise to defend themselves. It is crucial in the next period to mount a defence of the right to self-defence and to support it politically and in every other possible way.

Opposing the sexist offensive against women

The decline of the previously powerful women’s liberation movement has taken place in an overall context of political setbacks suffered by the working class and oppressed.

Women’s oppression is rooted in the family system. The steady dismantling of the welfare state including the weakening of public services covering health, social care, education and a wide range of supportive services including those to directly aid women in leaving abusive and oppressive situations, has intensified women’s oppression. The family system produces and reproduces a gendered division of labour within which women are required to be unpaid carers and to absorb the pressures and gaps created by disappearing public provision. This is, of course, impossible and is the context of increased inequality, poverty, falling life expectancy, violence and much more.

At the same time, the demand by capitalism for women’s labour outside of the domestic sphere, while being the basis for women’s economic independence and increased political status, takes place in the context of the impact of the gendered division of labour on employment – with women clustered largely though not solely into ‘caring’ professions and on lower pay – and, more conjunctionally, against the impact of austerity.

In Britain the total gender pay gap remains 14.3%. Women workers are particularly heavily hit by the austerity attacks on the public sector – where they form a large majority of the workforce. For these reasons women workers played a disproportionately large role in the recent wave of public sector strikes. At the same time, as explained above, the austerity offensive has increased the burdens on women in the family as vital public services have been slashed, leaving women being expected to assume greater caring responsibilities.

Today the capitalist class’ intensified attacks on women includes attempting remove crucial political rights which were gained in previous periods of struggle. The highest profile of these attacks in the imperialist states has been the overturning of Roe v. Wade in the US. There have been intense struggles in a range of countries. Abortion rights have again been under attack in Britain in the wake of this. It is crucial, as part of the overall struggle for women’s liberation, that these rights are defended and the work of the Abortion Rights campaign supported.

Women have also mobilised against sexist violence – as the movement around the murder of Sarah Everard demonstrates.

The need for strong women’s organisations and campaigns and the rebuilding of a powerful feminist movement to oppose the offensive against women is clear.

Resistance to austerity

The British economy has been close to stagnation in terms of overall GDP growth and per capita GDP has declined. This has led to a sustained attack on living standards – by far the most severe since World War Two.

These two key economic trends, stagnation and the austerity offensive, will intensify. There is already widespread discussion in capitalist circles about substantial cuts to welfare. All these attacks will be met with resistance in various forms, although it is not possible to foresee in advance the precise forms this will take.

The Starmer government has already begun to implement further austerity measures, which will go much further and the population will oppose this.

The past year saw the biggest strike wave in this country since the late 1980s, with over 4.1 million days of strike action. In some cases, workers were able to win above-inflation settlements, while other closely matched it. Overall there was a degree of militancy and participation which has not been seen for many years.

The strike wave was dominated by unions with long established bases, notably in rail, health, education and higher education, the civil service, and communication industries. But significant has been the beginnings of campaigns for recognition and industrial action by workers in more precarious employment, such as Amazon, Deliveroo, Uber and fast food outlets. These include a workforce with a higher turnover, and thus with a younger and very diverse social composition.

The movement against austerity is vital for the defence of the living standards of the working class and oppressed and it should also be noted that any victories objectively limit the resources which capital is able to divert towards its imperialist war drive.

Building an anti-imperialist anti-war movement?

Humanity is in a period of great human progress and unprecedented imperialist threats to that progress – where the fight to mobilise forces against imperialism, including in the ‘battle of ideas’, is at the forefront of the class struggle internationally including within the Global North.

All socialists in the Global North have a responsibility to play a leading role in winning over the broadest possible layers of the working class and oppressed to oppose the US-led imperialist war-drive and to support the necessary action to avert climate catastrophe.

These critical tasks must be done in the context of overwhelming imperialist propaganda through means which include the mainstream media, social media companies, the entertainment industry and popular culture. At the same time there is increasing censorship and witch-hunts of dissenting voices who challenging imperialism’s narratives.

All progressive forces in Britain intervening in this ‘battle of ideas’ do so in the present context of the crushing of the progressive, anti-imperialist current of Bennism/Corbynism and the consequent dominance of ‘imperialist economism’ in the British labour movement today – as explained previously in this article.

Social media has become an important arena where the international class struggle is being fought.

This was shown clearly, in Brazil in 2018, when it was an important part of imperialism’s campaign to secure the election of a pro-US fascist. The US orchestrated a soft coup against the PT which culminated in the disastrous election of Jair Bolsonaro, as Brazil’s President. After imprisoning Lula on trumped up charges of corruption, the US far right led by Steve Bannon poured huge resources into manipulating the 2018 election through fake news on social media platforms, particularly WhatsApp, which saw Bolsonaro built up from a fringe figure in Brazilian politics to winning the Presidential election in a matter of weeks.

A progressive role that social media can play in the struggle against imperialism has been clearly shown during Israel’s genocidal offensive on Gaza in 2023/24. Palestinians in Gaza have powerfully used social media to expose the truth of the US-Israeli offensive in Gaza – which has fuelled the growth of the massive international solidarity movement which has in turn amplified the testimonies of Palestinians within Gaza. The impact of this is clear – social media has contributed to the US and Israel losing the information war internationally. The ‘traditional’ pro-Israel mainstream media outlets in the Global North have been outflanked by social media content promoting the truth.

The issues of war and peace and whether humanity has a habitable planet to live on are the central dividing lines in the international class struggle today and the key points of polarisation in world politics, Britain included.
In addition, the struggles against austerity, racism, sexism, the oppression of disabled people and other forms of oppression will continue to throw up new battles that need to be supported. There are connections between the global imperialist offensive led by the US and these struggles, because of the relationship between imperialism and exploitation and all forms of oppression suffered by people worldwide.

9. Conclusion

In response to the historic rise of China and the Global South US imperialism is leading the Global North to double down on a global war drive which has the realistic potential to escalate into a Third World War – which threatens to be a nuclear war.

In response to the existential threat posed by climate breakdown US imperialism is leading the Global North to defend the fossil fuel industry and a refusal to take the necessary actions to cut greenhouse gases emissions – instead pouring trillions of dollars into military spending.

In summary US imperialism, as the centre of a ‘hyper-imperialist’ bloc, is leading a massive attack on humanity and its future.

It is vital that socialists build the broadest united fronts against the US war drive and climate breakdown as part of the struggle against all forms of exploitation and oppression. In these struggles socialists in Britain will find allies all over the world as a global majority is against imperialism’s attacks – with socialist countries leading the way and a majority of non-socialist countries in the Global South playing a progressive role.