By Steve Bell
On November 5th this year, Hilary Benn told a meeting in Lisburn that: “…nobody is arguing that there is an appetite for constitutional change here in Northern Ireland.” Benn is hardly the first English Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to publicly advertise an ignorance of Irish politics. But, presuming such ignorance, or cynicism, is essential underpinning for a Labour government that “strongly supports the union” and believes a border poll is “way off in the distance.”
To simply read the tremendous new book from Ben Collins is ample refutation of such fluff. He grew up in a pro-unionist and pro-British background in East Belfast. He has campaigned, at separate times, for the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP), the Conservative Party in Scotland, and the Alliance Party. He argues that the unionist community is best served by the reunification of Ireland. His argument is entirely based on factual data which demonstrates that the living standards and well-being of Irish people, across the island and communities, will thereby improve beyond anything that partition offers. The obvious importance of this is, as he writes: “…people will vote for reunification to secure peace and prosperity rather than doing so merely for posterity.” (P.38)
Utilising sound statistical sources he shows that Irish people in the south live longer, are healthier, have better housing, have a better education, and work in a more dynamic economy. He recognises that partition has weakened both economies. But the involvement of the south in the EU over decades has allowed it to mitigate Britain’s negative impact. Reliance on the British state has disadvantaged the north. Whilst the Windsor Framework has offered some protection from Brexit, the south continues to grow faster and is currently one of the fastest growing economies in the EU. The prospects are clear – while the north remains dependent upon austerity Britain it will continue to deteriorate when compared to the south.
Certainly, there are obvious political shifts which favour reunification on both sides of the border. Most obvious is the rise of Sinn Féin to the most popular party in Ireland, north and south.
In the north, this has been dramatic, overturning the unionist domination of all elected bodies of governance. Sinn Féin is the largest party from the north in Westminster – despite constant efforts to discredit its abstentionist policy towards the foreign parliament. It is the largest party in the Assembly, and now with Michelle O’Neill as First Minister. It is the largest party in local government. All of this in a part of the British state that was established to keep Irish nationalism as a subdued minority.
In the south, Sinn Féin secured the highest percentage of any party in the 2020 General Election. In the November 2024 elections the result was seen as disappointing when Sinn Féin slipped to second place in the popular vote. An extensive internal review was undertaken inside the party. The first fruits of this could be seen in the tactical shift in the 2025 Presidential election. By not standing a candidate, and campaigning for the independent nationalist Catherine Connolly, the party secured a united front of the entire left behind the successful campaign. The most recent opinion polls give the party around 4 per cent increase since the General Election.
Both these developments suggest that republicanism is regaining momentum in the south. This would appear to be confirmed in early November by the unanimous decision of the Dáil to support Sinn Féin’s motion that the government should plan and prepare for a United Ireland. The fact that this was supported by the coalition government parties shows that the issue is popular with the southern electorate. Of course, winning a motion is only the first step – the government must be pushed to implement the decision.
Alongside the rise of Sinn Féin, it has become evident that unionism is in a minority in the north. Taken together, the unionist parties- the Democratic Unionist Party, UUP, and Traditional Ulster Voice (TUV) – have a minority of seats at Westminster and in the Assembly. The rise of the Alliance Party has been possible through the movement of younger voters, primarily from the unionist community. With 13.5 per cent of the vote at the last Assembly elections, and 15 per cent in the last Westminster elections, the Alliance is effectively the third largest party in the north. Its official position is outside the nationalist/unionist division and is currently neutral on the issue of reunification.
However, the social changes underway are impacting the Alliance. “In his recent survey, Professor Jonathan Tonge reported that a majority of the Alliance Party members believe there will be and should be a border poll in the next decade. In October 2024, Belfast Telegraph’s Liam Tunney quoted Eóin Tennyson, newly elected Deputy Leader of the Alliance, that the party would have a “leadership role” in navigating the Irish Unity discussion.” (P.183)
Take this together with the recent Lucid Talk NI Tracker poll, which shows that more Alliance/Green/other voters want to see a United Ireland at some point in the future than wish Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK. We can see the foreshadow of a future majority for reunification in a border poll.
Collins combines his factual analysis of the grounds for Irish unity with policy proposals on a wide range of issues raised. This approach makes his book a real contribution to the public debate being promoted by such campaigns as Ireland’s Future.
There is one notable weakness in his book, although it is not essential to his contribution on reunification. He accepts the broadly “European” (U.S. led) dialogue on the war in Ukraine. For him, the issue is unprovoked Russian aggression against Ukraine, compounded by a decision of the US to disengage from Europe. This requires the European economies to massively increase their military budget and preparedness.
In fact, the US government is not reducing its military presence in Europe. On the contrary, it is deploying more nukes into the European theatre. It is insisting that European governments wreck their economies to serve its future belligerence.
The narrative that Collins uses excludes the whole US imperialist project of NATO’s expansion to Russia’s borders; the US engineered coup of 2014 in Ukraine; and the 14,000 deaths resulting from the Ukrainian government’s war against the Russian speaking national minority before February 2022.,
It is particularly strange that he overlooks the national minority. On page 205, he explicitly references the European Framework Convention on National Minorities, whose adaption by the Irish government, after the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, provides protection for the unionist minority in a reunified Ireland. This admirable document, if applied to Ukraine, would overturn the whole course of the Kyiv government since 2014. Indeed, the text of Trump’s “peace plan” explicitly states “Ukraine will adopt EU rules on religious tolerance and the protection of linguistic minorities.” Unfortunately, Collins, like the EU and British governments, does not think this national minority warrants a mention, let alone any rights or protection.
That weakness aside, this book remains an invigorating and important contribution to Ireland’s future.