By Steve Bell
The Sinn Féin Ard Fheis, held in Athlone at the end of September, felt more subdued than usual. The May local and European election results in the south were disappointing. Although there was a gain of seats in both elections, the voting level was considerably below expectations. In both cases the party secured about the same vote, just under 12%, as in the last local and European elections in 2019. But for sixteen previous opinion polls Sinn Féin had been averaging 26%.
Turnout in the May elections had been low, around 50%. It appears younger voters, where Sinn Féin is strongly supported, did not turn out. But beyond that snapshot, there is little analysis on the loss of momentum for the party. In October 2023, Sinn Féin was 33% in the polls. Since that time there has been an apparently relentless decline, with the Ireland Votes poll on November 14th 2024 showing support at 18.1%.
After the results, Mary Lou McDonald, party president, announced that there was going to be an extensive internal consultation on what went wrong. Certainly for an outsider at the Ard Fheis the absence of any reference to the findings of that consultation seemed strange. From leading figures there were passing references to the disappointment. Whatever conclusions were drawn, they were not shared. Perhaps party members regard the conference’s emphasis on practical solutions and reconnecting with the communities as those conclusions.
Of course, the Ard Fheis did register the positive developments in the north. The new Assembly, under Sinn Féin’s First Minister, Michelle O’Neill, has settled into a serious pattern of business. This followed from the DUP’s abandonment, in February 2024, of its tactical boycott of the Assembly – a futile attempt to overturn the Windsor Framework agreement on post-Brexit relations for the six counties.
The dominant position of Sinn Féin was confirmed in the Westminster General Election in July. Sinn Féin became the largest party in percentage of the vote – 27%, an increase of 4.3% on 2019. Securing seven MPs also made it the largest contingent at Westminster, although the seats are not taken in the foreign parliament. The most recent poll from Lucid Talk, at the start of November, gives Sinn Féin 29% compared to the DUP’s 19% in second place. Evidently, here there is no loss of momentum, and the Ard Fheis rightly took great heart from these achievements.
Hit by a reactionary wave?
The General Election has been called for November 29th. The Ard Fheis did not have this date, but knew the election was imminent. In these circumstances it was not surprising that activists wanted to look outward and forward, rather than become internally preoccupied. And the previous election cycle gave some hope that the local and European elections might not foreshadow the Dáil elections. In 2019, the party lost half its council seats, and two of its three MEPs. In the 2020 General Election it bounced back to win the largest percentage vote at 24.5%, its highest ever vote, and secure only one fewer TDs than Fianna Fáil.
However, it is important to register that something larger is at work than a poor election result. A rumbling movement against migrants and asylum seekers burst into a violent assault upon asylum seekers tents in Dublin, followed by rioting in Dublin in November 2023. This made international news, and has been followed up with a number of campaigns against hotels and hostels. Notable has been the pickets in Coolock, north of Dublin, against the conversion of an old factory into accommodation for asylum seekers.
Attacks on asylum seekers have continued, with a particularly serious attack in Dublin on Friday 2nd August, when 10 asylum seekers were attacked with hammers, knives and sticks by racists. This coincided with the racist pogroms in Britain. During the same weekend there were attacks on black owned businesses in the six counties. Racists protests were organised by loyalists and paramilitaries, with the presence of a contingent from Dublin of racists calling themselves “Irish Patriots”. It was remarkable to see in Belfast, an Irish Tricolour, the symbol of Irish unity and struggle, being paraded alongside a Union Jack, an emblem of centuries of violent suppression of the Irish people. Here these historic meanings are lost in an ugly alliance against highly vulnerable people.
This reactionary wave demonstrated that Ireland is not immune to the rightest shift that has swept across the EU and Britain. As a nation, divided and thus oppressed by imperialism, Ireland occupies a unique position in the EU. This means that Irish society is not party to the imperialist hegemony in the same way as the body of other EU states. Consequently, it has tended to be less impacted by the move to the right in the EU, and Global North more generally. But these recent events, on both sides of the border, demonstrate that these international processes also exert themselves inside a nation oppressed by imperialism.
The inclusive character of Irish nationalism
None of the above refutes the general fact that Irish nationalism has a progressive role, in so far as it represents a rejection of imperialist domination. Specifically, the continued partition of Ireland by British imperialism is the source of Ireland’s oppression and hampers Ireland’s development.
Those Irish people who act to unite the nation in order to end this oppression continue to represent social progress. Without Ireland’s unification and complete independence from the British state there can be no question of a genuine socialist struggle, or the unification of the Irish working class.
The anomaly within nationalism was well illustrated by Lenin. In his writings on the national question, he highlighted the position of Poland, a nation then oppressed by Czarism and the Russian Empire. Lenin noted that the same national question was utilised by different social classes, at different times, in Poland for different, and sometimes, reactionary purposes.
So too can this be seen in Ireland. In the 1930’s, shortly after Ireland achieved its mutilated independence, the fascist Blue Shirts utilised Irish nationalism to support Franco’s war against the Spanish Republic. Those “Irish Patriots” marching in Belfast and attacking asylum seekers in the south, are the modern expression of Irish nationalism corrupted into a fascist movement.
At the moment such forces are a tiny minority. In the local elections in May, the total vote for the National Party, Irish Freedom Party, The Irish People and Ireland First was 1.7%, up from 0.5% in 2020. In the European election they scored a more significant 4.9%.
However, the inclusive character of Irish nationalism is expressed in far more substantial figures when comparing Ireland’s record on integrating migrants and asylum seekers. Here the term migrant is used to define a citizen living in the country, but born in another country. In 2020, there were 871,256 migrants in Ireland, composing 17.5% of the population. In the same year, in Britain, a far wealthier country, there were 9,359,587 migrants, composing 14% of the population.
On asylum seekers, in 2023, Ireland was hosting 13,095 asylum seekers – composing 0.23% of the population. In the same year, Britain was hosting 84,332 asylum seekers, composing 0.12% of the population.
And on refugees, in July 2024, Ireland was hosting 108,540 Ukrainian refugees, composing 2.05% of the population. In the same month, Britain was hosting 244,560 Ukrainian refugees, composing 0.35% of the population. The only European countries with a higher proportion of Ukrainian refugees than Ireland are Czechia and Poland.
This openness to the stranger is a product of the terrible historic experiences of the Irish people. It is a product of both suffering and struggle.
Another expression of this is the extraordinary solidarity of the Irish people with the Palestinians. Popular support for Palestine is generalised. This has led the government to a position that is at the forefront of the minority of EU governments opposing the genocide. The Dáil has passed very progressive resolutions in support of Palestine. As well as constant local actions, the national demonstrations are proportionately the largest in Europe, most likely. Dublin has seen demonstrations of over 100,000 – in London a pro-rata equivalent would be a demonstration of 1,300,000.
The reason for this support is not because “Ireland is the most ant-semitic nation in Europe”, as Netanyahu stated. It is because Ireland’s history is replete with the problems of occupation, forcible population transfers, settlements, hunger, coercive legislation, wars, arbitrary imprisonment and torture, and exile. Contemporary nationalism is inevitably empathetic to the struggle of the Palestinians. As always, at the 2024 Ard Fheis the warmest and loudest expressions of support were for the Palestinian ambassador, and references to the need to support the Palestinians.
Winning the economic debate
In the run up to the General Election the immediate economic position in the south appears favourable. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook, October 2024, suggest that the real GDP growth for 2024 is minus 0.2%. This follows minus 5.5% for 2023. The speed with which the economy is exiting recession is illustrated by the fourth quarter in 2024 which is likely to turn out 7% higher than the fourth quarter of 2023.
The IMF projects that Ireland’s GDP will rise 2.2% in 2025, compared to an EU-wide average growth of 1.2%. By 2029, the projection is for 2.3% growth, compared to 1.2% Euro-wide. While these figures are hardly stellar, they are better than the EU area, and the advanced economies worldwide averages.
The situation with public finances is more clearly favourable. The Coalition government used a large surplus in public income to fund a pre-election budget, aimed at delivering an immediate financial boost to the majority of households, Public funds have benefited from €14.1 billion in backdated taxes from Apple, and €3 billion from the sale of the state’s shares in Allied Irish Banks. In a state where current annual government spending is around €100 billion, it is clear that this was a substantial boost for the government. Further, it is expected that the introduction of a global minimum for corporation tax of 15% will increase this annual revenue stream to government from the current €24.5 billion to €37 billion by the end of the decade.
Consequently, the October budget from the Coalition government may appear very attractive to the electorate. Jack Charles, Minister of Finance, estimated that “the average worker will gain about €1,000 from the budget”. A wide range of measures were introduced including increases in energy credits, extra child benefits, increases for maternity and paternity pay, increase in carers’ allowances, and student grant increases. One-off measures, i.e. single or double payments, amounted to €2.2 billion. Substantial sums were allocated for permanent measures, which along with additional infrastructure spending represents additional spending of €13.5 billion.
The Coalition government could hardly have given themselves a bigger boost just weeks before the election. Anticipating this, Mary Lou McDonald reminded the Ard Fheis that the government had spent millions in legal fees in a vain attempt not to be forced to pursue Apple for the billions of unpaid taxes.
Sinn Féin in response has highlighted the long term neglect of services. Rather than short term, and insufficient boosting, more sustained investment is needed for public services and infrastructure. Just before the Ard Fheis the party launched an alternative budget, and a major programme to solve the deep crisis in housing. Realigning the economic debate is an essential part of Sinn Féin’s struggle. However, in-depth policies by an opposition have a different cutting path than the immediate “giveaways” of a government in power. The election will test whether the majority will be satisfied with a short term sugar rush.
Hold tightly to your hope
In anticipation of what may be a difficult election for Sinn Féin, it is necessary to remember that there are setbacks as well as leaps forward in any serious struggle, If Sinn Féin fails to retain, its 2020 vote then that will mark a stumble in a long march. But, the underlying processes in Irish society are favourable to Irish re-unification.
In April this year, Leo Varadkar stepped down as Taoiseach to make way for Simon Harris. In October, Varadkar addressed a meeting organised by the SDLP’s New Ireland Commission in Derry. There, he stated that all of Ireland’s political parties should shift from aspiring to a united Ireland to making it a policy goal. This had particular resonance, as when Simon Harris made his first speech as Taoiseach he said that Irish unity is “a legitimate political aspiration”, but not a “priority”. Varadkar’s call resonates more than Harris’s timidity,
On October 22nd, the Irish News published the results of its Northern Ireland General Election Survey 2024. It found that support for remaining in the UK had fallen below 50% for the first time. Those wishing to remain scored 48.6%, those supporting Irish unity scored 33.7%, don’t knows 14%, and refused to say 3.7%. Although this looks conclusive, the dynamics are crucial. The proportion of those who support remaining in the UK has fallen by more than 10% in the past decade, and 5% since 2019 (Brexit). Support for Irish unity has risen by 5% since 2019. The two positions are split 47.7% each among those under 25. Among those over 66, support for remain stands at 61.8%, and for Irish unity 37.5%. The direction of travel seems clear.
The party has had a tough few months. Sinn Féin is perhaps less deterred by difficulties than any other party on the island of Ireland. From the Ard Fheis to the General Election, Irish republicans continue their march. As their leader, Mary Lou McDonald summarised, in her Ard Fheis speech: “Don’t let those who have run this state for over a hundred years have their own way again. They told us that a nationalist would never lead government in the North. They were wrong. Hold tightly to your hope, your belief, our dream, The dream of Easter 1916, sustained by generations of believers who faced the hard road and never, ever gave in. The realisation of that dream now falls to us.”