By Zuri Omer
The US-Israeli onslaught on Gaza, fully backed by junior Western powers like Britain, is reshaping the entire region. The real character of the imperialist powers and their Israeli proxies is revealed to broad masses of the population. At the same time, they have created a unity among the masses which hampers US plans for the region and beyond.
Palestine liberation and statehood has been a central issue in the geopolitics of West Asia for over a hundred years. However, shifts in dynamics between Iran and gulf state Arab countries over the past couple of decades has impacted how governments in the region have responded to Israel’s countless crimes against the Palestinian people.
For over 75 years, Israel has enjoyed impunity from the U.S and its other western allies to expel, ethnically cleanse, arbitrarily detain, and kill Palestinian Arabs. They have violated over 60 UN resolutions without consequence. In fact, the US has used its veto more times for Israel than it has on all other matters combined. This moment is no different. ‘Genocide Joe’ could very well be any other US president in Israel’s history.
What has shifted is how the Arab and Muslim populations have mobilised. Israel’s unrelenting genocidal onslaught in Gaza with the full support of the US, UK, and their European allies, has exposed the hypocrisy and decadence of the Western liberal order. It has also brought about a unity that West Asia has not seen for some decades and which threatens to undermine U.S. influence in the region and hinder its ability to force a top-down deal on the Palestinians.
The sectarian-driven violence of the past two decades, fostered by the US may have led many in the Western world to assume that the Palestinian resistance would not garner widespread support in the region. This misguided assumption is the reason why, before October 2023, the US and Israel opted to simply ignore the Palestinian ‘issue’ while pushing normalisation.
Palestine has long exposed a number of weaknesses and vulnerabilities in the regimes in the region. On one hand, countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan have populations that are deeply emotionally connected to the Palestinian cause. Over the past seven months, these countries have had to cater to these sentiments through rhetoric, symbolic moves at the UN, and statements of condemnation of Israeli actions. On the other hand, many of these regimes are dependent on economic and security support from the U.S, forcing them to walk a tightrope between not challenging Israel directly to appease the U.S. and not condemning the resistance forces to appease their populations.
As massacre after massacre is livestreamed throughout the world (often by IDF soldiers themselves), the overwhelming reaction in the region has been anger at the ‘humiliation’ of their country’s direct complicity in the genocide of Palestinians or its impotence in the face of it. Developments since October 7th have made evident that normalisation with Israel does not in fact empower normalised countries on behalf of Arab interests. Despite longstanding relationships with the U.S and normalisation agreements with Israel, neither Egypt nor Jordan (or any of the other countries) have been able to use any influence to stop Israel’s genocidal war, even as it presents a clear threat to their own regimes’ stability.
The ‘Arab street’ has united in successful boycotts of American brands across the region, citing that the US was chiefly responsible for Israel’s genocide in Gaza. Last week, McDonald’s announced a continued decrease in sales from the last quarter of 2023 into the first of 2024, impacted by “the ongoing war in the Middle East” that has affected its regional operations. This downturn offset gains in Japan, Europe, and Latin America. Similarly, Starbucks has reduced its annual sales outlook following a sharp decline in sales. The company’s CEO highlighted a ‘significant impact on traffic and sales’ in the region since October 7th. Coca-Cola’s local distributer in Turkey announced a 22% sales decline in the last quarter of 2023. In Egypt, the boycotts have rejuvenated the century-old local soft drink brand, Spiro Spathis, which has experienced a notable increase in sales. Even KFC, which is not listed by the official Boycott Divestment Sanction campaign, has suffered from the rising anti-American sentiment in Arab and Muslim countries. KFC Malaysia, for instance, recently reported that over 100 of its restaurants would close as a result of boycotts in support of Gaza.
Widespread protests have also been held outside Israeli embassies in multiple countries, including Morocco, Egypt and Jordan demanding that an end to normalisation agreements with Israel. During Ramadan, these protests occurred nightly and despite increasing repression, they continued to grow. As protesters in the Western world have been chanting ‘Yemen, Yemen, make us proud. Turn another ship around’, protesters in West Asia have been chanting about the humiliation of Arab normalisation with Israel. One particular chant from Egypt has become popular:
‘As long as Arab blood is cheap, down down with any president. They did it; they did it, and Mandela’s grandchildren have done it. They did it, they did it, and the grandchildren of San’aa did it. While we were in fear, shame, and humiliation!’
(Mandela’s children refers to South Africa bringing Israel to the ICC. Sanaa’s grandchildren refers to armed efforts to block Western shipping in the Gulf).
Gaza seems to have blunted the sectarian weapon the U.S has so often wielded in the region. Palestinians are predominately Sunni Muslims, and Hamas itself was borne out of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. And yet, it is Shiite groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and, Iran who have been the strongest allies of the Palestinian resistance. Before October 7th, Saudi Arabia, the most dominant Sunni country, was making steps towards normalisation with Israel.
This contradiction has not gone unnoticed among Sunni Arab populations. Week in, week out, protesters across the region have flown flags of the Shiite Lebanese group Hezbollah alongside those of the Sunni Palestinian resistance. Sunni young people in Ramallah and Cairo chanted for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The resistance in Gaza – by far the most revered in the Arab world – dedicate their mortar rounds and rockets to their Shiite brothers in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
The US’s unconditional support for Israel has been a destabilising force against their closest allies in the region. Jordan, a country with a very large ethnic Palestinian population, has seen daily demonstrations demanding the abandonment of the Wadi Araba treaty in which Jordan made peace with Israel. Throughout much of March and April, between 6,000 to 10,000 Jordanians protested nightly in front of the Israeli embassy in Amman. These demonstrations were called by the Jordanian Youth Gathering to Support the Palestinian Resistance – an umbrella organisation created in the wake of October 7th and made up of fourteen different groups across the political spectrum including leftists, Islamists, and nationalists. In Jordan the government is torn between suppressing the protests and embracing them as expressions of national sentiment.
Understanding their precarious position, the Arab governments have tried to pressure Biden to push Israel for a ceasefire to preserve themselves. On Monday 6th May, the resistance in Gaza agreed to a ceasefire deal mediated by Egypt and Qatar and other Arab countries have asked the U.S to pressure Israel into accepting it as well.
Turkey has also been calling for a permanent ceasefire agreement from the beginning. Despite tension over the years, NATO member Turkey has enjoyed good diplomatic and economic relations with Israel. Events since October 7th have changed this. In the face of growing public anger, President Erdogan has made a number of statements openly calling Israel a ‘terrorist state’ while also refusing to denounce the Palestinian resistance (in fact he called them ‘freedom fighters’). In recent weeks, he has also met with the leader of the political wing of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, to discuss the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the importance of unity in the Palestinian struggle.
Despite strong rhetoric, pressure has mounted on Erdogan. The country’s local elections held on March 31st saw unexpected results at the expense of his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). The Republican People’s Party (CHP) with politics of secularism, nationalism, and a centre-left economics, recorded a historic achievement at the elections. For the first time since 1977, the CHP is now the largest party in Turkey, receiving 38 percent of the vote. The election campaign was marked by intense debates on Israel’s war on the Gaza Strip and Israel–Turkey relations. Opposition parties criticized the government for maintaining commercial ties with Israel, with the religious New Welfare Party going as far as likening votes for Erdogan’s party to supporting Israeli military actions in Gaza.
Last week, the Turkish government announced a total trade ban with Israel until it agreed to a ceasefire. Turkey is an important trade partner with Israel, with exports exceeding $5.4 billion in 2023. The Israeli Builders Association says that 70% of its iron construction materials and a third of its cement come from Turkey. Still, there have been sustained calls for Turkey to use its leverage by refusing to facilitate crude oil exports from Azerbaijan to Israel through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
Bahrain too has felt the destabilising force of Israel’s actions in Gaza. It normalised with Israel via the Abraham Accords in 2020 and was the only Arab state to officially join Operation Prosperity Guardian in a non-operational role in the US-UK bombings of Yemen. The campaign against normalisation has a broad appeal amongst Bahrainis as both Shiite and Sunnis in the country have shown far less acceptance of the Abraham Accords than their Emirati counterparts.
Protests in solidarity with the Palestinian resistance in Gaza have been held every Friday for months in various cities across the country and on May 2nd the newly named Islamic Resistance in Bahrain published footage of their first-ever operation targeting the Israeli land transport company Track Net in Eilat. As an attempt to release some of deepening tensions in the country, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa recently ordered the unconditional release of 1548 prisoners, making this Bahrain’s most significant royal pardon since the Arab Spring began in 2011.
Since October 7th, the Axis of Resistance have progressively escalated their actions against Israel. On several occasions, Israel has been attacked and caught off-guard by various forces in the resistance. Hezbollah has forced evacuation from much of the north of Israel, Ansarullah of Yemen has been blockading the Red Sea for months, the resistance in Iraq have launched multiple attacks on U.S military bases, killing three American soldiers at a base in Jordan in January. And on April 14th, Iran retaliated against Israel with an unprecedented barrage of weapons sent directly from its own territory to Israel. This was in response to Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria two weeks prior which killed sixteen people including senior IRGC figures.
The popular reaction in the region to Iran’s retaliation has been celebratory. With the exception of Bahrain, all GCC members condemned Israel’s strike on Iran’s diplomatic facility in Syria on April 1st but refused to condemn Iran. In the hours after Iran’s retaliation was announced, social media was flooded with videos of people in the region celebrating. In fact, you could chart the path of the drones from the different Arabic dialects in the videos as they crossed from Iran into Iraq, over Jordan, and into Israel.
The next day, as the fog cleared, the Western imperial media commended Saudi Arabia and Jordan for their part in defending Israel. Saudi Arabia denied it. As their involvement was evident from videos on social media, Jordan did not have that luxury. The overwhelming reaction of Jordanians to their country’s defence of Israel was anger. Despite praise from the Americans and the Europeans the Jordanian government was forced to put out a statement downplaying its role, claiming to be simply protecting Jordanian air space. Judging by the rising sentiment in the country, very few in Jordan believe or support the government.
Before retaliating, Iran informed countries of the region of their intentions and sent warnings to the Gulf states with US military bases of the consequences should they permit use of their bases against Iran. The US has so far been unable to stop Ansarullah’s blockade of the Red Sea. Could they be relied upon to protect Arab dictatorships from an ‘Iranian threat’? In the end, the U.S. did not use their bases in the Gulf.
Opinion surveys and Arab social media show considerable support for Iran and the Axis of Resistance. The same surveys show a decline in support for the US and its allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which normalized relations with Israel in 2020. A Washington Institute poll conducted at the end of 2023 polled 1000 Saudis and found the overwhelming majority (91%) expressing agreement with the statement that “despite the destruction and loss of life, this war in Gaza is a win for the Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims.” 96% agree with the proposal that “Arab countries should immediately break all diplomatic, political, economic, and any other contacts with Israel, in protest against its military action in Gaza.”
Since October 7th, Palestinian liberation has been forced back onto the agenda by the resistance and the popular will of the people of the region. Before the Al-Aqsa Flood, Saudi Arabia was in discussions with the U.S and Israel confident that they could effectively sidestep the issue of the occupation.
Now the Saudi government is directly calling Israel’s actions in Gaza ‘a genocide’ and they are pushing for a deal with the U.S which would exclude Israel. The proposed plan includes bilateral agreements between the US and Saudi Arabia on security, technology sharing, a defence pact and collaboration in civil nuclear energy and emerging technologies like artificial intelligence. It is clear that despite the best efforts of the U.S, October 7th has made it impossible for countries like Saudi Arabia to normalise with Israel without addressing the occupied Palestine-shaped hole in the plans.
Image: Map of the Gaza Strip; Photo from OpenStreetMap contributors via [1], UN OCHA, ArcGIS icons which fall under TOO; Photo cropped. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.